- The situation in the ruling military-political establishment of the USA remains rather strained. Trump fired the Secretary of State Tillerson in the second decade of March and soon after dismissed the National Security Advisor McMaster. How can you explain these unexpected staff replacements in the US establishment?
- It is impossible to say why all of it happened exactly at this moment. It is possible that President Trump is disappointed with the work results of his foreign policy team. It is also possible that he is trying to influence the investigations of the Special Counsel Robert Mueller regarding the “Russian interference into the 2016 US elections”. Or maybe he is just an impulsive person. Maybe the reason is not even significant: throughout his career Donald Trump has always thrived in chaos – be it as a developer in New York, a reality show star, a political candidate and today as a president. I don’t expect that to change.
- Do you think the dismissals in the ruling establishments of the USA will continue?
- The assumed period of work of a high-status employee in the Trump administration counts months, even weeks, rather than years. I think we should not exclude this. We can expect anything from Donald Trump. Turbulence and disorders will exist at the White House as long as Trump lives there.
- Should we expect any fundamental changes in the foreign policy course of the USA under the new Secretary of State Pompeo and National Security Advisor Bolton regarding Russia and post-Soviet countries?
- I think we are experience the unwinding of the foreign policy of Trump 2.0. it is clear that the new team will be more aggressive towards Iran and North Korea. When it comes to Russia and post-Soviet countries, one should not expect any serious changes in the foreign policy of the USA regarding these countries. The relations between Russia and the USA will remain strained. While President Trump seems to have a strange repulsion towards speaking critically and ill of President Vladimir Putin, Bolton on the other hand is a vociferous opponent of Russia. His appointment is a sign that the American foreign policy will toughen. Of course, there is also Mueller’s investigation. Considering these factors, it is hard to say how far the American-Russian relations might go. When it comes to the Karabakh conflict, Trump’s new team will not be actively involved in the solution of the Karabakh issue.
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