West has two targets, expert of Nisantasi University Ali Semin shared his views with AzVision.az. The first target is to push Russia away from the world arena by weakening its economic and military sides. At present, there is an ongoing economic war. Those who are not on the side of West in this war will probably face some reactions. 

- Can the passive phase of the war start after the ceasefire? 

- Economic sanctions will put Russia in a crisis in future though it is not the case for now. The West aims to completely isolate Russia. The West has previously made several attacks against Russia. NATO wanted to surround Russia and accepted memberships of Baltic countries. They also wanted to accept Ukraine as a member. Currently, the West has two targets. The first is to weaken the economic and military sides of Russia and push it away from the world arena. If Russia cannot overcome it, it may become another Iran or North Korea. Therefore, I think that Russia intends to continue. If the ceasefire is reached, it does not mean the end of the war. 

If humanitarian corridors are opened in the territory of war, it means that the battles will continue. It is up to Putin to halt this war. The West only wants to deepen the war by sending weapons to Ukraine. In my opinion, Ukraine will share a similar fate with Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya. Currently we see that Ukraine is divided into four parts. Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk and the rest of Ukraine. The war is continuing under the control of Russia. However, if we consider military aid to Ukraine from the West, Russia may lose control. I think that the war will last for a long time. 

- Russia is obliged to make significant changes in both the direction and structure of Russia's foreign economic relations. What new risks and opportunities exist for Russia’s major regional partners, the Caspian States? 

- The effects of the war may somehow extend to the Caspian states and the Black Sea region. Turkey is also concerned about the unrest on the Black Sea coast. At present, the war is not considered in terms of economy. However, serious economic problems will emerge in the future. The Caspian States are among those countries, which have good relations with Russia. Relations between those states and the West may also sour. 

It is necessary to bear in mind that countries, which have good relations with Russia or are under Russian influence will be faced with the West. And it seems highly probable. At the moment, Western countries are waging an economic war against Russia. Those who are not on the side of the West will probably get some reactions. There are more risks than opportunities in this issue. I assume that the sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community will not bypass those countries. If there are no exceptional cases with those countries, they will be targeted by the West. Additionally, there are bilateral risks in this matter. They will either support Russia or the West. Both sides are risky.

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