Oil price: `enormous strain` will remain throughout 2016
After an initial dive to well below $28 a barrel on Monday, international benchmark Brent crude rose through the afternoon and settled overnight at close to $30. This bore out predictions that removing the uncertainty over the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran would spark a modest rally.
But the prevailing advice of most observers, articulated last week by Tyche Capital Advisors in New York, is to sell "any and all rallies" as a global glut continues to dominate sentiment. Traders appear to be taking that on board: in early trading in London, the price of Brent had slipped towards $29 a barrel and was heading lower.
The imminent removal of international sanctions on Iran is about to see a new flood of oil into an already oversupplied market. The Financial Times notes the head of the country`s national oil company has already ordered an increase in output of 500,000 barrels a day and that 50 million barrels that had been held in reserve were already on tankers ready to be shipped to buyers in Europe.
This ramping up of output from a country with the fourth-largest proven oil reserves in the world is one reason cited by the International Energy Agency in its latest incredibly bearish forecast for prices this year. It said this would more than counter the fall in US production and keep supply 1.5 million barrels ahead of demand throughout 2016.
In short, it predicted that the world "could drown in oversupply" and that "enormous strain" on prices would be maintained, says FastFT. Predictions are for oil to fall to between $25 and $10 a barrel this year, before recovering.