Russia-Ukraine War will create new rules, says Turgay Turker - INTERVIEW

  14 March 2022    Read: 446
  Russia-Ukraine War will create new rules, says Turgay Turker -   INTERVIEW

Russia has the potential to influence the West, said Turgay Turker, chairman of the Economic Journalists Association of Turkey, in an interview with 

"Russia made all its plans before the attack on Ukraine. This country even simulated the possible expectations regarding foreign exchange reserves. Also, they were aware of the possible sanctions. Therefore, Russia will not stop until it achieves what it wants, acting under those plans”, Turgay Turkey stated.

- If Russia completely shuts off gas supplies, the West will remain paralyzed. The West also needs agricultural exports from Russia. I think these issues will be discussed. Taking all this into account, I do not think that these sanctions will hit harder Russia.

- Some experts predict that these sanctions will affect Russia's neighbouring countries. What do you think about it?

- This can bed expected from the West but there is another option. For instance, the West imposed the largest set of sanctions during the Iraq war. Turkey also suffered from these sanctions. However, many companies continued selling their products to Iraq via Jordan. It is impossible not to have an impact on neighbouring countries, but the question is, what will be the impact? How will other countries react to Western sanctions? Well, we agree to cut economic ties with Russia. Then who will meet my needs? Therefore, ships carrying grain, oil and other agricultural products needed by Turkey leave Russian ports with special permits. To date, all sanctions cover economic areas such as banking, shopping, property of Russian oligarchs, travel bans, corridor flights, etc. But it seems that the current sanctions target basic needs. Hence, you need to take the region into account while applying bans in the region.

- How would the countries of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin be affected by this crisis?

- The largest resources of countries in this region are minerals. How can you deprive yourself of them? All these can generate new cracks. Neighbouring countries will choose Russia as their centre of attraction, not the West, which is a great risk. Everyone witnessed what happened in Ukraine. Although the West voiced their support, no one supported Ukraine. The reason is that any intervention would result in a third world war.

In my opinion, the countries of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea will continue to maintain warm ties with Russia. This is also a neighbourhood relationship. If any of these countries take refuge in the West, it could have a profound impact on Russia's security. This was one of the main reasons for starting the war in Ukraine.

- Do you believe that these sanctions will affect Azerbaijan, either directly or indirectly?

- President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy has always been deliberate. Turkey has also acted with deliberation. It is unlikely that Azerbaijan will be subject to any sanctions. Diplomacy is a game of mind and moves. Azerbaijan will not say that they will turn away from Russia and only cooperate with the West. This also applies to Russia’s other neighbouring countries. At the same time, both Russia and the West are aware of the power of Azerbaijan. Therefore, a balanced policy, a political strategy that will save the nation, the country, will create ample opportunities for Azerbaijan. The current situation in Azerbaijan's diplomacy is extremely successful and commendable.

- Do you agree with the idea that a new economic order can be established in the world?

- Absolutely. This war will bring new rules and create new pacts. For example, what can Russia say if it exports goods in rubles instead of dollars? Europe's renunciation of Russian gas is a very difficult issue. But how will they pay Russia? Therefore, in the coming days, we will be able to talk about new exchange schemes. The reason is that if Russia only accepts roubles as payment for natural gas bought by the West, all schemes will be changed.

- How long can Russia tolerate these sanctions and the world can tolerate their negative impact?

- Pre-war statements showed that Russia was ready for sanctions. Deepening sanctions will make it difficult for all countries, as there are strong interdependencies among them. Much depends on the breaking points of the war which can create new realities with them. If it turns into a guerrilla war, the situation will change. Who will fight? Legionnaires or volunteers? Russia currently demands the West to suspend military aid to Ukraine. The framework of the talks is also clear. One of the two parties must agree to the terms and conditions. If they agree,  the outcomes will be completely different for Russia and Ukraine

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