On the 200th day of the war - September 11 - powerless in the face of the counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia resorted to a new nefarious tactic and began to attack civilian infrastructure - power plants. IES-5 in Kharkiv, IES-3 in Pavlovgrad, Zmiyevsk IPP, and Kremenchuk IPP were targeted by Russian missiles. As a result, 40 substations and 7 power lines were left without electricity.

The main target, TPP-5 in Kharkiv, was one of the essential links in Ukraine's infrastructure of electricity. It should also be taken into account that since 2014, 35 per cent (15 gigawatts) of the power generation of Ukrainian electricity remained in the separatist territories, which were not under the control of Kyiv. After the start of the war, the Sloviansk and Uglegor NPPs, which were in the zone of military operations, were closed, and the Zaporizhzhia NPP has recently been added to that list. The nuclear power plant in Kakhov is damaged and it will take at least a year and a half to restore it.

In total, 15 Ukrainian power plants were disabled. If all these energy blocks worked, Ukraine would not only cope with the heating season but could even export 70 billion hryvnias of electricity abroad per year. On September 10, an agreement was reached between Kyiv and Warsaw that Ukraine would sell coal and electricity to Poland in December. Currently, Ukraine has accumulated about 2 million tons of coal reserves, which were being considered for sale to the European Union countries. However, after these treacherous and criminal strikes, the situation changed. Now Ukraine needs to burn that coal in its surviving power units to replace the disabled generation capacity.

What also worries the Kremlin is that its plan to let Europe “freeze” over winter is not yielding the desired results. The situation is not at all as depicted in the caricatures circulating in the Russian media and social networks. Europe is in trouble, and the prices of electricity, gas, and water are on the rise, but these economic and social difficulties do not affect the EU’s political will, which irritates the Kremlin and can be considered one of the reasons behind Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s power stations.

By targeting civilian infrastructure, Russia, which can neither achieve its political nor military goals, is demonstrating its helplessness. Russia is failing to realize its goals by military means and on the battlefield. Therefore, Russia is trying to resort to hybrid methods, which are also doomed to failure. Although the Kremlin has halted gas supplies to the West, the gas storage of European countries is filled to already 85 per cent. Ukraine’s premier said his country’s preparation for the heating season is estimated at 75 per cent. It should be recalled that before the war, Ukraine was 80 per cent prepared for the heating season. The difference is only 5 per cent. In other words, Russia’s aggressive actions have failed.

Prof. Alibala Maharramzade, who has a PhD in economic sciences, is a Director at the Ukrainian Trade House.

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