Russia can "burn" itself in the Caucasus, says Mubariz Ahmadoglu

  11 September 2023    Read: 425
 Russia can "burn" itself in the Caucasus, says Mubariz Ahmadoglu

It is of great importance for the Russian Federation to decrease the number of conflict-prone territories in the Caucasus by starting with the Karabakh Armenians.

Military-political tensions in the Caucasus region are evolving in an increasing direction, and clashes among small population groups are on the verge of turning into a regional military conflict. The destructive processes that happened in Dagestan and the North Caucasus, especially in Chechnya, at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century were quickly forgotten. At that time, with the close assistance of Azerbaijan, stability was created in this region of Russia, and territorial integrity was not violated.

Today, what is happening in Dagestan, Chechnya, and Ingushetia means a repetition of that period. In addition, some new and dangerous elements are also evident. The behaviour of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, can be considered very positively from the perspective of his people and the general Caucasus, but a similar opinion cannot be expressed in the context of the whole of Russia. It seems that Kadyrov controls Putin not only in the North Caucasus but also in many issues of Russia. The Caucasus is differentiated not only by the complexness of its territory and ethnic composition but also by its set of characters.

The Karabakh conflict appeared at the moment Tsarist Russia brought Armenians from Iran to Karabakh, from Iran and the Ottoman Empire to the territory of modern Armenia. It was the Karabakh conflict, in which the Armenians created a permanent headache for the USSR, that finally destroyed the USSR. At the moment, the main goal of the games run around this "problem" is to destroy Russia. It is not about the number of Armenians being large or strong, but about the control of the Moscow elite by Armenians. Konstantin Zatulin's family living abroad is supported by the Armenians. For this reason, he even made an anti-Russian statement about Ukraine. Konstantin Zatulin visited the US embassy in Armenia with former President Robert Kocharyan while the building of it was being built. Because even though he is Russian by nationality, he must serve Armenians. The plan of the West to destroy Russia through the Armenians is based on such factors.

Today's anti-Russianism of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has little to do with losing in Karabakh. The first step of the Armenian Prime Minister, who came to power after the revolution, was against the CSTO. Speculations about the removal of Russia's 102nd base were circulated. At that time, there was no subject of Karabakh. A year and a half later, while dancing in Shusha, Pashinyan said, "Karabakh is Armenia." Pashinyan has an obligation to the United States and he is now busy fulfilling it. Joint military exercises with the United States are proof of this. A week ago, NATO military exercises were held in Georgia, but Armenia did not participate. Now, suddenly, without any announcement, he is training with the United States in his territory. Pashinyan took this step under pressure.

From this point of view, the Karabakh issue should not be the subject of Pashinyan's commitments. The Armenians of Karabakh should be freed from the status of the political arena of Armenia. Moscow can do them if it wants.

The Karabakh conflict is not the only one in the South Caucasus, the steps taken by Russia can turn the situation in Abkhazia into a hot phase at any moment. Thus, it can be said that both the south and the north of the Caucasus are ready to ignite at any moment. In the end, Russia may face a much larger war in the Caucasus than the war it envisions in Ukraine. It is very difficult to claim that this war will end within the framework of Russia's territorial integrity. Of course, Azerbaijan's support will be with Russia in this potential war. The only condition is that Russia behaves frankly with everyone, especially with Azerbaijan, on the issues of stability, territorial integrity, and state sovereignty.

Russia's first step to shrink the conflict-prone territories should start with the removal of the Armenians it brought to Karabakh 200 years ago. Even if it is necessary to return them to Iran, Moscow must remove Armenians from Azerbaijani lands. As he placed it, he should also carry it from here.


Mubariz Ahmadoglu
Head of the Center for Political Innovation and Technology

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