"The Bipartisan Policy Center now forecasts a risk that the debt limit 'X Date' — the date when the federal government can no longer pay all of its bills in full and on time — could occur in the first half of September", the think tank said on Monday.
The authors of the report stressed that in July and August, the US Treasury would continue to spend funds on prioritised and emergency measures, but revenues for the 2019 fiscal year were rather low, with total revenue growth of less than 3 percent year-on-year. According to the report, lower than expected corporate income tax collections appear to be due to 2017 tax cuts.
Despite this, analysts believe that the most likely time of the default, if it occurs, is the beginning of October.
"All forecasts carry uncertainty, but given the potentially devastating economic consequences, it would be irresponsible for Congress to ignore this new forecast. The only way to take the possibility of default off the table this year is to pass a debt limit extension in the coming weeks", BPC's economic policy director, Shai Akabas, said.
According to data from the US Treasury Department, US government debt had grown by more than $2 trillion during the presidency of Donald Trump, reaching $21.974 trillion by early 2019.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the US national debt amounted to 78 percent of GDP in 2018, the highest share since 1950. It is noted that the budget deficit increased to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2018 from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2017.