While the current growth rate of 1 million barrels a day or about 1% -- will hold for the next five years, it will ebb to just 100,000 barrels a day in the 2030s, the agency said. By that time, the use of oil-based fuels in passenger cars will have peaked, the IEA said in its long-term World Energy Outlook.
Global oil demand averaged 96.9 million barrels a day last year and will climb to 105.4 million a day in 2030, the IEA projected. After that, the growth rate of 100,000 barrels a day is about half the level the agency predicted in last year’s report, and is concentrated mostly in the aviation, shipping and plastics sectors. Demand will reach 106.4 million barrels a day in 2040.
Yet despite the flattening of oil demand, worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide from energy will keep increasing after 2040 as developing nations continue to burn coal for power generation, according to the report.
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