Armenian military regularly holds military exercises in the occupied territory of Azerbaijan. In June 2017 and later on December 6, 2017, military exercises were conducted by Armenian military forces in Kangarli village and Uzundere, illegally occupied land of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence kept a close eye on it.
In September 2019 another provocative military exercise was conducted by the de-facto authorities of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. On October 3, 2019 “ana.az” and “Garabakh Bureau” reported that the Armenian military is holding military drills in the Uzundere part of Aghdam, occupied territory of Azerbaijan. On May 20, 2020 “InternationalNews.az” reported that Armenian army held military drills in the direction of Uzundere village of Azerbaijan’s Aghdam region.
Shair Ramaldanov a military expert termed it an illegal military exercise. It was aimed to evaluate military readiness, improve combat operations, to evaluate the efficacy of military planning and operational capabilities of various military units against Azerbaijan. It is pertinent to assert that Armenia illegally occupied twenty per cent of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory through a military operation. Yerevan’s military preparedness boosts morale and confidence of the Armenian Defence Ministry. Military readiness enables it to impose war on Baku and other neighbours. Conversely, the Armenian military poses threats to Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and regional peace and prosperity.
The international community observed that the military exercise was conducted on the occupied territory of Azerbaijan. Armenian military exercise violates international law and, diplomatic agreements. Yet, the global community did not condemn these exercises. Baku requires introspection of its diplomatic efforts to review why the global community turned a blind eye to dangerous exercise. This need stems from first Yerevan conducted these exercises on Azerbaijani sovereign territory. Conversely, it is a violation of the ceasefire. Second, a prompt diplomatic response from Baku is the need of the hour to bring into limelight Yerevan’s aggressive military posture and hostile designs. Third, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry issued a prior press release on May 14 regarding the nature and conduct of military exercises from May 18 to 22. Yet, Armenia launched a diplomatic offensive against Azerbaijan to prove that Azerbaijani violated diplomatic agreements. Fourth, Armenia understands the significance of diplomatic isolation. It has launched propaganda against Azerbaijan at diplomatic front e.g. it sent letters to the United States (US) Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defence Esper. Yerevan expressed grave concerns over Azerbaijani military exercises. It aspires to isolate Baku diplomatically by alleging it as a threat to regional peace and stability. A letter was also sent to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to brief the organization on Azerbaijani military exercises. Fifth, Yerevan launched propaganda to convince Washington that the aid provided to Azerbaijan under Section 333 Building Partner Capacity program enabled Baku to divert domestic resources to strengthen offensive capabilities. Strong Azerbaijani military endangers regional peace and stability. Consequentially, the US should suspend US aid to Azerbaijan. Sixth this propaganda launched through various means for instance Ministry of Defence’s website, letters sent to US Secretaries and OSCE Minsk Group generates sympathies for Yerevan and put Nagorno-Karabakh illicit occupation in the backburner.
Azerbaijan conducted military exercise from May 18 to 22 in its sovereign territory. Armenian representatives in their propaganda made it clear that any attempt from Azerbaijan to approach the Line on Contact will be considered as a hostile act of sabotage, a threat to self-proclaimed Artsakh and dealt with force. Contrarily, Armenian military exercise had always been conducted in close proximity to Azerbaijan’s border. It involved large scale military personnel, heavy artillery and armoured vehicles. Facts on the ground prove that Yerevan poses threats to Baku’s security. The readership should not forget that the Armenian military launched an offensive against Azerbaijan in April 2016.
Armenian military’s new offensive military doctrine “active deterrence” calls for pre-emptive strikes against Azerbaijan. It also calls for invasion and occupation of large swaths of Azerbaijani territory. Armenia’s chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Movses Hakobian, in September 2017 stated that “we need new and better territories to ensure the security [of Artsakh].” Hakobian statement thus proves the authors claim. Military exercises in this background are conducted by Armenia to hone its military’s warfighting doctrine. Offensive in nature military doctrine, deployments of Armenian military personnel, heavy artillery and ammunition close to Azerbaijan’s frontline can result in a preemptive strike by Yerevan in the future. Large scale fighter planes deployments by the enemy pose additional threats to Azerbaijan’s sovereignty. It is speculated that the enemy’s propaganda against Baku aims at achieving diplomatic, strategic and territorial objectives. First, it wants to prove that Azerbaijan rose and maintain hostile armed forces consequentially pose threats to Armenian sovereignty. Second, declare Azerbaijan as an irresponsible state and isolate Baku in the international community through proactive propaganda. Third, it is preparing grounds for future offensive operations/ preemptive strikes against Azerbaijan.
A preemptive strike strategy is not a new concept. Preemptive strikes gained prominence first during US President George W. Bush’s first presidential term. Later, it gained prominence under India’s fascist regime of Narendra Modi. Indian political and military authorities believe that South Asia in the Indian sphere of influence. It wants to maintain escalation dominance against South Asia’s small neighbouring states. Conversely, New Delhi emulated George W. Bush’s military doctrine against Pakistan on February 26, 2019 in Balakot. It is pertinent to assert that both Pakistan and India are nuclear-weapon states (NWS). Ironclad law of nuclear deterrence is NWS does not attack rival NWS. Yet, fascist Modi authorized a preemptive strike against Pakistan. Balakot attack proves the irrationality and irresponsible behaviour of Indian leadership. Indian air force became a laughing stock when its MiG-21 was shot down by Pakistan air force. Indian pilot was taken into custody by Pakistan. However, Pakistan released an Indian pilot to deescalate the crisis. Fascist Modi proclaimed that he was planning for Qatal ki Raat (mass murder) of Pakistanis by launching missiles against Pakistani cities. Today, Yerevan based policymakers are in the pursuit to emulate Modi’s dangerous steps. It is easy to initiate or launch preemptive strikes. However, it is inevitably a dangerous policy. Crisis inherits dangers. A crisis spiral has its own momentum. Mismanagement of crisis inevitably will result in mutual destruction and loss of precious lives. Yerevan based policymakers are playing with fire. The irrationality of Armenian Politico-Military leadership poses threats to regional peace, security and sustainable development. The international community should take notice of Armenia's leadership obsession with war planning to thwart threats to regional and international peace and security.
Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed is Member Board of Experts, Center for Global and Strategic Studies (CGSS), Islamabad, & Assistant Professor Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Sargodha, Pakistan.
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