Experts, who learn and study the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus, assess the recent escalation of tensions on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in the direction of Kalbajar as a ‘signal to next war’.
If we look at the intensity of Armenian provocations in recent weeks, we may think that either Armenia has lost control over its army, or lost its mind. Is it true that the political and military leadership of Armenia, whose army was defeated in the 44-day war and forced to sign an act of capitulation tries to restore its lost "power" and "pride" through military adventures and provocations ?!
Although the provocations aim to “show” the existence of Armenian army, the essence of these efforts is related to completely other issues. Note that the US ambassador in Yerevan has recently visited the Azerbaijan-Armenia border and got information about the situation from Armenian officials. Although the US embassy has not released any statement on the visit, in any case, it was not an excursion for the ambassador. Especially in the light of provocations on the border before the ambassador's visit.
It is plausible to note that when a small armed incident happens in any part of the world, the US calls on its citizens not to visit those places and advises diplomatic corps there not to go outside. However, in this case the US ambassador to Armenia visits the Azerbaijan-Armenia border with accompaniment of armed Armenians amid daily armed provocations. They did not even warn Azerbaijani government and armed forces about it. It means that the US embassy is assured that Azerbaijan does not commit any provocations. Of course, Armenia will commit provocations while the ambassador is there. The US ambassador's visit to the border area and sympathy to the Armenians stems from this confidence.
Following the US ambassador’s visit, Armenian forces not only fired on Azerbaijani positions, but also tried to advance by using large-caliber weapons. Killing of three Armenian servicemen and injuring some others during yesterday’s retaliation against Armenian provocation shows that Armenia intends to violate the 10 November agreement and invalidate the document. Obviously, Armenian government and Pashinyan try to invalidate the Trilateral Agreement and draw the US and France in the process. With such actions, Armenia attempts to prove that Russia’s peacekeeping mission does not work and it harms Russia’s image and reputation. Pursuing the path of provocation, Armenia, on one hand, speaks about the commitments of CSTO but on the other hand, raises the issue at the international level, gets Russia's peacekeeping mission under suspicion and seeks to abolish it.
Considering the fact that Armenia intensively fired on the positions of Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the directions of Nakhchivan, Lachin, Kalbajar, Tovuz and Gadabay during July, our argument has a strong and logical basis. Experiencing serious socio-economic consequences of the post-war period, Armenia realizes that the situation in the country will further worsen due to autumn and winter seasons. Therefore, the Armenian leadership tries to create an atmosphere of war, fear and panic and divert attention from internal problems.
This policy serves to attract Armenian lobbies and their financial resources to Armenia. By recreating the atmosphere of war in the country, Pashinyan makes populist statements on revenge and calls on Armenian diaspora to start an “Assist the motherland” donation campaign.
It is no secret that Armenian always tried to attract third parties to the border issues between the two countries. The provocation, which occurred in July, 2020 served these purposes. Armenia, which escalates the tensions on the state border wants to swish around the region, muddy the waters and attract external powers, which try to get the maximum benefit from the conflict for their political speculations and obtain more adherents.
With such actions, Armenia clearly rejects negotiations on demarcation and delimitation of state borders of two countries. It is not an exception that certain external bodies also instigate Armenia. It is heinous to commit such provocations on the border between the two countries amid discussions on border issues in Moscow at the initiative of Russia. The statements such as “the conflict has not been settled, the status issue should be looked over” made by French ambassador in Armenia encouraged the revanchist forces. It is no coincidence that all these have increased following the allocation of aif package of 2,6 billion euros to Armenia by the European Union. Armenia indirectly tries to say to Russia “we don’t need you anymore”. Otherwise, Pashinyan would not dare to violate the Agreement signed under the assurance of Russia and take such a frantic step.
As Pashinyan stated before the elections, all these serve to deploy armed forces of third and fourth countries to Armenian territories. Indeed, it is more of Russia's problem and the Kremlin is aware of what happens in its outpost.
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