The political scientist noted that Azerbaijan has long been identified as one option for Europe, and there is renewed interest given the current crisis.
The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) has been an important new source of supply, especially to Italy, said Bremmer, adding. “But the ability to increase volumes through this route has been disappointing so far, and remains in some doubt, especially as Azerbaijan faces domestic demand growth of its own that could eat up a lot of new production growth.”
He emphasized that Europe will remain an important source of gas exports for Azerbaijan, but ultimately the changes taking place in Europe, especially the acceleration of the green agenda, will prove more strategic.
“Europe’s goal is to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons significantly. Gas will help to bridge that process, but in the long term, Europe is moving towards decarbonization and a shift to clean energy,” the political scientist concluded.
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