Due to the events that are turning around with Russia's direct participation in Ukraine and around it, the issue of the situation in the South Caucasus in the politics of the Russian Federation has become frivolous. As far as I am aware, the Russian Foreign Ministry has not made any public official statements about the so-called 'OSCE mission' in Armenia.

Currently, Russia has actually lost the possibility of influence, and hence control of this region. It is no surprise that France is trying to take its place today. And only in their own interests. Well, Iran is there too. The latter, after it felt Russia's dependence on the supply of its weapons (UAVs, ballistic missiles), considered itself as an applicant for the role of moderator of processes in the region. However, Turkey firmly occupies this place. 

Armenia takes advantage of this situation and delays the processes of peaceful settlement, delimitation and demarcation of the border. Revanchist attitudes can also be seen here. Desires to return at least one more part of the territory of Karabakh under their control one way or another. Well, since there are no clearly defined borders between the Armenian and Azerbaijani states, this creates favorable conditions for Armenia to carry out various provocations, including military ones. Apart from that, Azerbaijan's retaliatory measures against Armenia will be presented as ‘aggression’. Indeed, this is what the ‘OSCE mission’ is for. It is extremely small in number and cannot monitor the situation along the entire line of contact online. Therefore, the Armenians will take these ‘players’ to the venue of their provocative "spectacles".

There are no hopes for objectivity on the part of the Russian peacekeepers either. Russia has discredited itself in the eyes of the whole world; no one believes it now. Besides, the peacekeeping contingent has been reduced due to the transfer of part of the military personnel to the combat zone in Ukraine. The same can be said about the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri. The reports that spread in the media about the alleged concentration of Russian troops on the border of Armenia in the amount of 5,000 people are nonsense. Now in the Russian army every soldier counts, and they need them in Donbass and near Kherson. When it comes to France, it does not have any military force in the region at all.

Thus, no matter what the OSCE mission says, it cannot really affect the situation either. If Macron does not announce unilateral sanctions against Azerbaijan on the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe, it will be different. However, it will be a stab in the back of Germany.. In this sense, the clumsiness of the French policy, which is being carried out on the provocations of the Armenian lobby, causes bewilderment and amusement.

Note that throughout the 30 years of the Armenian occupation of Karabakh, international organisations, including the OSCE, could not affect the situation in any way. The issue was decided by military force, based on the power of the Azerbaijani economy, supported by Turkey and the professionalism of the Azerbaijani and Turkish military. Therefore, I would not pay any attention to the fluttering of the ‘OSCE mission’ and France behind it. Azerbaijan and Turkey need to gather strength for a new stage of the liberation struggle in the South Caucasus. It is inevitable and will end with the complete loss of sovereignty by Armenia. This will be the case if the Karabakh revanchists do not think better and do not agree with peace agreements.

As for Iran, its claims to regional leadership are, in essence, intoxication from the realization of the political and military insignificance of modern Russia. In the case of a military provocation by Iran against Azerbaijan, it will undoubtedly rake not only from Turkey, but also from the United States. The US will try to use the opportunity to end another long-standing threat. What happened in Iraq in 2003 will happen in Iran. In this regard, massive deliveries of strategically important weapons from Iran to Russia can be used against Iran itself. The case is that Iran will not have them in the necessary quantities when it needs them. 

Russian military expert, Alexei Khlopotov 

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