Catalans vote on Sunday in a regional election that could determine the stability of Spain's Socialist-led government and also gauge the strength of a pro-independence movement that has roiled the country for a decade.
A government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialist party in Catalonia after a decade of separatist governments would usher in a new era, said political scientist Toni Rodon.
"If the separatists lose their absolute majority in parliament, it would definitely represent a change of cycle," Rodon said. "Whether this is temporary or long-term, we shall see."
But a win for the Junts party would bolster the separatist cause and create further predicaments for Madrid. Junts' candidate is Carles Puigdemont, who was Catalonia's president during an ill-fated attempt to wrest the region from Spain in 2017, and he has vowed to resurrect an independence bid.
Since taking office for a second term last November, Sanchez has relied on a fragile alliance with separatists to pass legislation in the national parliament, earning the ire of conservative opponents.
Puigdemont, who faced prosecution in Spain over the failed independence bid and has been living in self-exile but who is set to return home soon thanks to an expected amnesty, has warned that Junts might withdraw its support if the next Catalan government is one he cannot accept.
Opinion polls forecast a comfortable lead for Socialist candidate Salvador Illa in the election, ahead of Junts and its more moderate rival Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which currently governs the wealthy northeastern region.
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