The price of Brent moved by less than $5 per barrel from peak to trough last month, whilst the price of the US benchmark, WTI, moved by just $3 per barrel.
“US active rig counts resumed their downward trend in September. Admittedly, rig counts tend to lag prices by around three months so they should start to level out soon, but more generally, US oil output held up better than most had expected last month,” the analysts said.
Crude prices rose on Friday as fighting in Syria intensified. In early trading, WTI was up at $45.67 per barrel – a 2.1 per cent increase from yesterday, while Brent was 1.5 per cent higher at $48.39 per barrel.
Capital Economics’ analysts forecast Brent price at $55 a barrel and WTI price at $50 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2015.
OPEC basket price is expected by British analysts to rise in the course of 2016 to $57 a barrel in the fourth quarter of next year compared to $52 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
OPEC month-to-date basket price in September averaged $45.03 per barrel, compared to $45.46 per barrel in August and $54.19 per barrel in July.
Analysts of the US JP Morgan bank in the near term see limited downside risk to oil prices.
Brent average price will amount to $54.5 a barrel in 2015, while WTI average price is expected at $48.2 a barrel, according to JP Morgan’s report, obtained by Trend. In the fourth quarter of this year Brent is expected to average $50 a barrel, WTI – $43.7 a barrel.
In 2016 Brent average price is forecasted at $52.5 a barrel, WTI prices – at $46.5 a barrel.
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