The Weather forecast for winter 2014-2015 in Azerbaijan has been made public.

The National Hydrometeorology Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources told, seasonal forecasts are released on the basis of dynamic and complex mathematical analysis of long-term climate forecasts and numeric meteorological observation data. The forecast is released in 5 Climate Centers – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC-Korea), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), International Research Institute for Climate and Society of the US (IRI) and center of WMO – equipped with high technology with support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). They all engage in releasing long-term forecasts with Météo-France and multi-model system. Seasonal forecasts are analyzed by experts in the forums organized with support of WMO after being developed through different digit hydrodynamic models in these centers and made public.

Like any other countries, Azerbaijan too has begun to regularly participate in the Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) since 2008 under the support of the WMO and submits a report on the preciseness of the forecast for the past season. Such forums help increase the authenticity of seasonal forecasts. The last forum was held in Turkey on 17-22 November 2014. During the forum, detailed information was given about the overall anticipated trend of precipitation and temperature in winter after the analysis of the results of seasonal forecasts for winter.

Based on the results and analyses of all these numeric climate models, experts at the climate forum concluded that the upcoming winter season in the South Caucasus region will be relatively mild and the temperature within climate norm or a bit higher. However, the analysis of long-term meteorological data in Azerbaijan suggests that cold arctic air currents prevail more frequently in our region usually in January and February, and thus frosty and snowy weather conditions in some periods can not be ruled out despite winter is expected to be comparatively mild.

In mid and late January of this winter, the temperature is expected to occasionally drop below the norm. As for December, cold air currents are likely to dominate although mild weather is typical for this month. Therefore, the average temperature in December is predicted to be close to climate norm, sometimes below, and precipitation to be close to climate norm or over in some regions.

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