Brent price, according to the analysts’ forecasts, will average $50 a barrel in the first quarter of 2017, then rising to $55 a barrel in the second quarter and $57.5 a barrel in the third quarter of the next year.
The price for Brent will average $42 a barrel in the third quarter of 2016 and $45 a barrel in the fourth quarter pf the year.
Oil prices slumped by more than five percent end of past week as the dollar surged due to news that the UK had voted to leave the EU. However, prices regained slightly later in the day as the initial panic waned.
Oil prices rose on June 28, pushed higher by the threat of union strikes by Norwegian oil and gas workers and expectations of another drop in US crude inventories, the Wall Street Journal reported.
WTI for August delivery settled up $1.52 at $47.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent rose $1.42 to $48.58 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
“We are not overly concerned about the impact of Brexit on oil prices, once the initial market volatility has subsided, for three key reasons. First, the UK will remain a member of the EU for at least two years so very little will change in the short term,” analysts of the Capital Economics said in a report.
Second, they expect the impact on economic growth, both in Europe and the UK, to be significantly less than feared by some.
“As a result, demand for oil should continue to grow. What’s more, any negative effects could well be offset by looser monetary policy,” analysts said.
Third reason, they said, is that the UK is a relatively small consumer of oil. The EU as a whole, including the UK, consumes about two thirds as much oil as the US and only about 13 percent of total demand. As such it would take a large fall in growth to have much of an impact on global oil demand, analysts believe.
Britons held a referendum June 23 on whether the UK should to stay in the European Union, or leave it. The voting results indicate that the campaign to leave the EU, known as the Brexit, has won with 51.9 percent of the votes.
Oil prices to gradually rise in 2017, analysts say
29 June 2016
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Oil prices will gradually rise starting from 2017 and exceeding $50 a barrel level in the course of the next year, according to the expectations of the of the British consulting company Capital Economics.
