Offsetting some of this growth will be lower production, mainly from Russia (-0.13 million barrels per day), China (-0.06 million barrels per day), Indonesia (-0.06 million barrels per day) and Norway (-0.05 million barrels per day). In terms of regional oil supply, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is seen growing by 0.71 million barrels per day in the second half, which will broadly offset the declines of 0.18 million barrels per day expected in FSU countries and elsewhere.
In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.84 million barrels per day, following a downward revision of 0.11 million barrels per day, to average 58.14 million barrels per day. This forecast is revised down mainly due to lower expectations for Russian oil production, as well as lower output in Brunei, Sudan and Kazakhstan following the decision of OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers to extend oil production adjustments for a further period of nine months up to the end of 1Q18.
Moreover, US oil supply growth for 2017 was revised down by 29,000 barrels per day to 0.80 million barrels per day, due to lower-than-expected output in 1Q17. It should be noted that higher growth in 2017 is envisaged for Canada and the UK, compared to last month.
On a country-by-country basis, the main contributors to growth in 2017 are expected to be the US with 0.80 million barrels per day, Canada with 0.26 million barrels per day, Brazil with 0.21 million barrels per day and Kazakhstan with 0.13 million barrels per day. In contrast, Mexico and China, as per 2016, remain the countries that see the largest contractions.
According to OPEC, preliminary data indicates that world oil supply up by 0.13 million barrels per day m-o-m in May to average 95.74 million barrels per day, higher by 1.48 million barrels per day, y-o-y.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is estimated to have averaged 57.30 million barrels per day in 2016, a decline of 0.71 million barrels per day from 2015. During 1H16 and 2H16, non-OPEC supply decreased by 0.63 million barrels per day and 0.78 million barrels per day, respectively, compared with the same periods the previous year. Non-OPEC supply in 2016 saw a strong decline in OECD Americas, China and Latin America, while growth was seen in the FSU, driven by robust output of 0.24 million barrels per day from Russia.
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