By Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed, Member Board of Experts Center for Global Strategic Studies (CGSS), Islamabad & Assistant Professor Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR), University of Sargodha-Punjab Pakistan

And Ms. Saima Kausar, Former Visiting Lecturer Department of History and Pakistan Studies, University of Sargodha, Pakistan

Nagorno-Karabakh is sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. In 1991, heavily armed Armenian militants illegally occupied the region. However, war continued and in 1994 ceasefire was reached. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) have passed eight resolutions (822, 853, 874 and 884). UN resolutions unanimously promulgates that Nagorno-Karabakh is sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. Further, Armenian militants have illegally occupied it. UN demanded Armenia to unconditionally withdraw its occupation forces from Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory. Yerevan in clear violation of established diplomatic norms refused to accept UNSC’s resolutions. Occupation forces in violations of Geneva Convention 1864, Charter of the International Military Tribunal or Nuremberg Tribunal  1945, the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the two 1977 Additional Protocols killed thousands of unarmed innocent Azerbaijani civilians. Occupation forces also forcefully displaced thousands of Azerbaijanis from their homes. Armenian involvement in heinous war crimes, continued illegal occupation of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory, and deliberate use of force against Azerbaijan’s civilian population lead us to draw two conclusions. First, Yerevan’s leaders apparently are following Nazis policy to illegally expand Armenian territory. Second, use of force against Azerbaijani civilians in occupied territory is in violation of Article 8 of Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Yerevan is clearly involved in “War Crimes.” It blindly followed Adolf Hitler’s strategy of holocaust. 

Armenia-Azerbaijan’s Conflict

Armenian refusal to withdraw its forces and continued illegal occupation of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory resulted in 1994 temporary ceasefire to deescalate the situation. Baku’s abhorrence for war was considered as a weakness. Consequentially, Yerevan continued to violate the ceasefire agreement at the Line of Contact. Current conflict broke-out at the Line of Contact when Armenian forces resort to use of artillery against counter-value and counterforce targets across Line of Contact deep inside Azerbaijan. Countermeasures from Baku to repel the occupant forces protect precious lives; prevent damage to property and infrastructure led to escalation of the conflict. 

Ongoing conflict is rooted in Yerevan’s 2019 war fighting doctrine based on active deterrence strategy. The architect of the assertive perilous doctrine Armenian Defence Minister Tonoyan categorically rejected Azerbaijan’s land for peace proposal. Tonoyan instead asked Armenian armed forces to prepare to pursue “new war for new territories.” Tonoyan called for occupying additional swathes of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory. Conclusion can be drawn that Armenian fascist leadership is executing new war for new territories. Armenia imported SU-25 multirole fourth generation combat fighter craft to strengthen its air force. Armenian armed forces possess Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles and S-300 Ballistic Missile Defence System. Possession of modern weapon system created sense of security in the minds of Armenian decision makers.

Armenian military first violated the ceasefire agreement in July and September, 2020. Overconfident Armenian armed forces horizontally escalated the ongoing conflict as it resort to use of heavy force and modern combat fighter craft SU-25. It is deliberately endangering regional peace. Consequentially, it should be designated as a pariah state. Yerevan based fascist leadership is clearly following Hitler’s minister for propaganda Paul Joseph Goebbels footprints attach acute importance to public opinion. It has launched propaganda warfare against Azerbaijan’s armed forces by exaggerating the number of casualties and loss of military drones and relevant counterforce assets to demoralize Azerbaijan’s armed forces. Azerbaijan’s time tested ally Turkey provides moral and diplomatic support to Baku over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Yerevan therefore launched propaganda and alleged it for shooting down Armenian SU-25 aircraft on September 29. Turkey is alleged of sending 4,000 battle hardened soldiers from Syria to fight Armenian forces. Core objective of this propaganda against Turkey is to isolate Baku in international community and draw major powers attention in its favor. Armenian President Armen Sarkissian understands major powers involvement will result in Yerevan favored ceasefire to consolidate and preserve Yerevan’s illegal occupation over Nagorno-Karabakh.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to cease hostilities. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during telephonic conversation with President Ilham Aliyev urged to resolve the ongoing conflict through dialogue. Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the opposing sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to hold their fire. However, war frenzy Nikol Pashinyan Armenian Prime Minister ruled out negotiations to deescalate and resolve the conflict through peaceful measures. 

In conclusion authors endeavored to highlight Yerevan’s rejection of established diplomatic norms. Authors claim can be simply verified by visiting UNSC’s website. Secondly, Armenian involvement in war crimes remained unnoticed. Third, Baku’s war abhorrence is considered as Azerbaijan’s weakness. Fourth, Armenian war frenzy leadership is blindly following Nazis footprints and endangered regional peace. Yerevan’s refusal to hold dialogues to deescalate ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh provides opportunity to Azerbaijan to carryout swift military operations based on element of surprise to liberate its sovereign territories with use of force. International community’s failure to settle ongoing conflict in Baku’s favor in the light of UNSC resolutions is considered as policy of appeasement by Armenia. Unresolved conflict will certainly endanger lives of innocent civilians living in occupied territories and across Line of Contact in Azerbaijan.

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