Greek clock ticking, markets frozen

  08 July 2015    Read: 1272
Greek clock ticking, markets frozen
Greece is nearing what looks like a proper, solid, now-or-never deadline to avoid bankruptcy, and markets look like rabbits in headlights.
Dozens of deadlines have come and gone on Greece before, writes Katie Martin, but this is clearly more serious. You can read the full story here, but if here are the key points:

Greece was yesterday given five days to reach a deal with creditors, with European Council president Donald Tusk saying that an inability to find agreement "may lead to the bankruptcy of Greece and the insolvency of its banking system."
Jean-Claude Juncker said "we have a Grexit scenario prepared in detail" as well as a plan for humanitarian aid.
Gulp.

"We are starting to be very worried," the European Central Bank`s Christian Noyer said on Wednesday.

In response, though, the euro is barely changed. It trades at $1.10 against the dollar, flat on the day.

German government bonds, treated as the safest of safe retreats in times of stress, are stronger, but only slightly, with yields on the 10-year debt at 0.616 per cent.

The bonds of Italy, Spain and Portugal, theoretically vulnerable to any Greek stress infecting other euro states, are slightly weaker. Yields are up by around 0.02 percentage points for each on Wednesday.

Most markets research this morning can be summarised as `oh, wow. OK. Final countdown.`

Barclays:

We continue to think "Grexit" is the most likely scenario. Shut off from private-sector liquidity, Greek banks continue to shed deposits, even with the EUR60 per day cap on withdrawals.

But the market impact may be clearer in the emerging markets near the eurozone.

"Greek storm brings out the bears," writes RBS.

Among the [eastern European] currencies we cover, the Romanian leu appears to be the only currency that has direct exposure.

However, other countries` policies may also be impacted as second-round effects spread to the world`s markets. We think further rate cuts in the second half of 2015 are now off the table in Hungary, Poland and Romania.

The Greek crisis adds to our bearishness on a handful of currencies in the region. We remain long the euro against the zloty targeting 4.25, and think that the [Polish central bank] may intervene if the euro rises to PLN4.30. We are also rolling over our short Hungarian forint recommendation.

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