- Fresh water scarcity is the global scourge. What are the reasons behind the shortage?

‘The UN World Water Development Report 2020 discloses that global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow steadily at a rate of about 1% per year because of increasing population, economic development and shifting consumption patterns. This will threaten the effective enjoyment of human rights to water and sanitation for potentially billions of people.  Food security, human health, urban and rural settlements, energy production, industrial development, economic growth, and ecosystems are all water-dependent and thus vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Degradation of ecosystems will not only lead to biodiversity loss, but also affect the provision of water-related ecosystem services, such as water purification, carbon capture and storage, and natural flood protection, as well as the provision of water for agriculture, fisheries, and recreation.

Western Asia and North Africa. Much of the impacts of climate change will be manifested in the tropical zones where most of the developing world can be found. Small island developing states are typically environmentally and socio-economically vulnerable to disasters and climate change, and many will experience increasing water stress. Across the planet, drylands are expected to expand significantly. Accelerated melting of glaciers is expected to have a negative effect on the water resources of mountain regions and their adjacent lowlands.

Impacts of climate change on Africa’s water resources are acute, for example, numerous studies find that rainfall in southern Africa has decreased recently. Vulnerability to climate change is moderate to high across the region, with a generally increasing gradient from north to south. Runoff and evapotranspiration generally follow the same trends as precipitation, although evapotranspiration is limited by water scarcity. The areas with the highest vulnerability to climate change are in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the southwestern part of the Arabian Peninsula, which comprise several of the region’s least developed countries.

Europe, Caucasus. Climate projections indicate increasing precipitation in northern Europe and decreasing in the South. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights increasing challenges for irrigation, hydropower, ecosystems, and human settlements in the region.

Latin America and the Caribbean. Climate variability and extreme events already severely affect the region. In Central and South America, observed streamflow and water availability changes are projected to continue, affecting vulnerable regions.

Rapid urbanization, economic development and inequality are among the key socio-economic drivers of pressure on water systems with which climate impacts intersect. Poverty is persistent in most countries, contributing to the vulnerability to climatic change. Economic inequality also translates into inequality in access to water and sanitation, and vice versa. Increasing risks of waterborne diseases have a greater impact on poor people. Vulnerability is also high in rural areas, with climatic factors limiting economic options and driving out-migration.

Asia and the Pacific. There is high variation and low confidence in projected water-related impacts of climate change at the subregional scale in Asia and the Pacific. The region is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters and extreme weather events, which are disproportionately burdening poor and vulnerable groups. Water-related climate impacts intersect with other socio-economic trends that impact water quality and quantity, including industrialization (which is reshaping sectoral demand for water and increasing pollution), population growth and rapid urbanization. The latter have also increased exposure to water-related natural hazards such as floods.

Central Asia. Serious problems related to the impacts of climatic change and low adaptivity are exacerbated by the complicated socio-economic and political dynamics, which affect water resources at regional, national, and lower levels. Water resources management in Central Asia is facing great challenges. The hydrological regimes of the two main rivers in the region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are complex and vulnerable to climatic change. Agricultural, industrial, and residential consumers are using less water tapping and downstream flows have substantially decreased, resulting in severe environmental damage. Runoff on both rivers is mainly formed through melting snow and glaciers.

While changes in precipitation levels are difficult to predict, a strong consensus has it that global average temperatures are rising. Estimations at hand show that by 2050 the river runoff in the Amu Darya will decrease by 10-15% and by another 6-10% in Syr Darya. The upper reaches will end up receiving more rain, resulting in the likely decrease of ice volumes in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains.

Shortage of water resources in Central Asia is one of the main limiting factors for the development of regional countries in both short and long-term perspectives. The expected growth of water consumption leads to competition for water at the regional and local levels among irrigation, energy, and other sectors of the economy. Agricultural irrigation accounts for over 90% of the total water withdrawal from the regional river basins. These countries need to take care of their food and energy security, increasing the water requirements and the tension in interstate water relations in the region.

Central Asian countries are looking for solutions, minimization and, if possible, prevention and reduction of economic damage associated with water resource shortage, pollution, and depletion of water sources.

Therefore, one of the important tasks in the overall strategy for managing water resources in Central Asia under the current climatic change is jointly developing adaptive measures and balancing interests of regional countries among environmental requirements for water, hydropower, and irrigated agriculture. Introducing Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in the countries of the Aral Sea basin is a prerequisite for adapting to climatic change, for rational consumption and protection of water, for shifting to water-saving technologies in economy, in irrigated agriculture above all, strengthening interstate cooperation in consuming hydropower resources at national and regional levels.’

- What threats does the freshwater shortage pose?

‘The UN Development Programme believes that the climatic changes are growing more noticeable in the region. These include temperature fluctuations, increased cold and heat waves, more frequent droughts, increasing water shortage and conflicts. The glaciers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, those ‘water towers’ of Central Asia, are shrinking. In Tajikistan alone, where glaciers account for around 60% of Central Asia’s fresh water, they have shrunk by 30%, completely dissolving over a thousand glaciers over the past few decades. Meanwhile, droughts and dust storms have almost doubled over the past decades. Last summer’s drought killed livestock and destroyed crops in the west of the country. the experts forebode that water consumption in Kazakhstan will grow by 56% in twenty years, while water shortage may exceed twenty cubic kilometres per year.

Kazakhstan is a water-dependent country, as only 2.8% of its territories are covered by water, while two-thirds are dry zones. Over 40% of water resources arrive in Kazakhstan from neighbouring countries. Among the main reasons behind the shortage are climatic change, uneven distribution of water resources throughout the country, dependence of these regions on the effluents of neighbouring countries, deterioration of hydraulic infrastructure, and river pollution.

World Bank forecasts the water resources in Kazakhstan to decrease from 90 to 76 m³ a year by 2030. This translates to a water shortage of 12-15 m³ a year in about 8 years, which makes up about 15%. The water resources in Kazakhstan highly depend on river and lake runoff. The geographical location makes Kazakhstan suffer from a severe water shortage.

Kazakhstan’s specific water supply is 37 thousand m³/km² or 6 thousand m³ per capita a year. A major portion of Kazakhstan belongs to endorheic basins of inland lakes without an ocean access. The atmospheric precipitation is insignificant, with the exclusion of mountainous terrains. The total river resources account to 101 km³, 57 km³ of which are formed on the territory of Kazakhstan. The rest arrive from neighbouring countries: Russia – 8 km³, China – 19 km³, Uzbekistan – 15 km³, Kyrgyzstan – 3 km³.’

- What are some of the ways of solving the problem of drinking water shortage? What actions do we need to take to conserve resources?

‘Territorial and geographic patterns do not allow all regions in Kazakhstan to have an equal access to drinking water. Only three regions enjoy high rates, which are Atyrau (98.5%), Almaty (98.3) and Kyzylorda (97.6%). Rural population in 4 regions, Kostanay (64.7%), East Kazakhstan (81.4%), North Kazakhstan (82.1%) and Jambyl (82.2%), have the least access. Ministry of Industry and Infrastructural Development of Kazakhstan reports that Kostanay with 64.7% suffers the worst of all. There are only 6,316 villages in the country, 3,991 of these are provided with centralized water supply. Block modules have been installed in 403. The government is planning to build centralized water supply in 793 villages, 148 of them to be finalized this year. They will be installing complex block modules in the remaining 1,129 small villages with a population of less than 200, 220 of them to be finalized this year.

The government is indeed taking considerable measures. There is even a special presidential water security council, chaired by the prime minister. The state is adopting various programs and projects and allocating huge funds, such as the ‘Drinking Water’ and ‘Ak Bulak’, and the Regional Development Program until 2020, which have been in place since 2002. The Regional Development Program covered 589 billion tenge to develop water supply and sanitation systems through 2015 projects overall from 2011 to 2018.’

- UN insists that Kazakhstan may be facing a severe water shortage by 2030. What are the causes of such shortage in the country?

‘The Asian Development Bank data shows Kazakhstan as the eighth most ‘water stressed’ countries among Asian countries. Meanwhile, the problem is exacerbated every year. World Bank estimates that the water resources in Kazakhstan will fall from 90 cubic kilometres to 76 by 2030. Kazakhstani scientists have assessed that the water deficit in our country will stand at around 12-15 cubic kilometres a year in 8 years.

8 aquicultural basins have been created in Kazakhstan in total. The largest today, the Balkhash-Alakol basin has resources of 27.8 km³ mid- to long-term. 41% of these arrive from the PRC. At the same time, Lake Balkhash stood at 341.85 m above sea level, which is a critical level. The main artery of the Lake Balkhash basin is the Ili River and the main rainfall excess. Around 70% of the basin’s water catchment area is in the PRC. The root of the problem lies there. Another long-term water stress is the shortage in the Aral-Syr Darya basin, which brought about the ecological catastrophe in Aral. It has been 50 years, and it is still not resolved. The reason remains the same. The water flows from Uzbekistan are plummeting, while the environmental water loss during dry spells remains.

We see two main reasons behind critical water shortage. The first is the plummeting water flows arriving from transboundary countries. The second is the insufficient efficiency of water consumption measures and programs, simply put saving water in all areas of consumption. Therefore, experts propose developing a joint structure with all transboundary countries as a water basin consortium including business. It will be responsible for regulating water balance through economic mechanisms. We must also have state projects and programs for water conservation. Many foreign countries have launched this approach.

Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are among the five Caspian countries. For Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea is a coastal strip of 700 kilometres. The Geography Institute at the National Academy of Sciences reports that the seabed denudates at a rate of 70 centimetres a year, while the water has already receded by 300 metres. The same processes are occurring at the Kazakhstani shores. One of the eight water basins, the Zhaik-Caspian, is in the north of the Caspian Sea.

Shallowing in this part of the sea occurs due to a decrease in streamflow in the Ural River. 80% of the river is formed in Russia. The Ural headstream accounts for 300 reservoirs of 4.9 million cubic metres total, which collect most of the water. The average volume in the Ural used to stand at 9.4 billion cubic meters, which has now decreased by 5.7 billion. We are currently running joint projects with Russia to further reduce the shallowing of the Ural River.

The Aktau seaport is on the Caspian coast, which is also home to the trans-Caspian oil hub, which is exploited jointly with Azerbaijan. The Mangyshlak Atomic Energy Combine is also in Aktau, generating electricity and desalinating water for consumption.

The drawdown of water level in the Caspian Sea is also an acute problem. It has been over one meter since 2005. All this negatively effects the marine ecosphere, leading to mass deaths of seals and fish. The President of Kazakhstan has instructed to establish a state scientific institute to research the Caspian Sea.

The government has been closely cooperating with colleagues from other Caspian countries, including Azerbaijan, for many years to resolve these issues.’

- What is Kazakhstan doing to avoid this?

‘Kazakhstan is hard at work to develop the new Water Code. The Government and the Parliament must work through the amassed water issues. We must also revise the Rules for establishing water protection zones and strips, Rules for operating reservoirs (including hydroelectric power stations) and adopt a new concept and a state water preservation program.

International experts also agree that the main problem Kazakhstan suffers from is the imperfections in the system for planning and controlling water resources. What we are doing is not water resource management, but merely water demand managing. We must first transfer water fund monitoring to a digital format and introduce remote sensing technologies. Meanwhile, we do not even have hydrological posts in most reservoirs. Secondly, we must update the mechanism for an integrated consumption and preservation of water resources in Kazakhstan to meet modern requirements, which is the foundation of the strategy and tactics for rational water use.

Moreover, we must define the real cost of water for each water basin. Efficient use of water resources is impossible without this.  

The efficiency of irrigation systems in the country does not exceed 0.45-0.55, which translates into 50% of irrigation waters lost. Only 16% of irrigated arable uses drip irrigation technologies and sprinkler systems. Basically, most of our irrigation waters seep into the sand. This requires changing the policy of state support in irrigated agriculture. Only those who implement water-saving technologies, should receive it. This is not about shortage, as there is enough water for every person. The issue is access, which the authorities will solve over the next two years.  Kazakhstan is peculiar in a way that water resources are distributed unevenly across the country and by season.

Global warming and terrains with 60% aridity translate into more droughts. Experts believe that the country must prepare and implement rational water use in agriculture under these conditions. Droughts lead to livestock loss and insufficient feed, which in turn, is a direct threat to food security.’

- What needs to be changed in water resource management?

‘The proposed systematic measures to improve management include developing an accurate water cadastre and a system for monitoring and accounting, defining the real cost of water for each basin and a real tariff for various water consumers, encouraging water conservation in irrigated agriculture, and allocating funds for repairs and damage elimination in water structures that provide the population with drinking water.

The final and most vital concern is improving the bodies that manage these water resources. Experts have long been proposing to merge and develop a single ministry for water resources within the government.

It would also be feasible to follow the practice in foreign countries and simultaneously establish basin departments in the regions with all the necessary powers. This is exactly the kind of new water resources management system the state needs today.

The government and public authorities recognize the urgent need for a new management strategy, and they have been hard at work to develop crucial projects and programs. The country has developed the Water Security Strategy and national projects, such as the ‘Water Resources’ and ‘Green Kazakhstan’. Agriculture, the biggest ‘water loser’, requires 7.4 thousand kilometres of irrigation networks and up to 420 thousand hectares more land that employs water-saving technologies such as drip irrigation and sprinkling. The ministries of agriculture, ecology, and natural resources and the regional akimats (local administration) have jointly developed regional roadmaps to introduce water-saving technologies by 2025 and adopted measures to revamp the existing hydraulic structures, wells, and boreholes in pastures.

Another proposed project embodies developing a wastewater program by 2025, including reusing waste and drainage waters.

Norms and limits for water consumption under the conditions of water scarcity need developing and updating among all basins and economic sectors, which will serve the foundation for planning economic programs and monitoring projects for water use.

All these issues require high-quality regulatory and legislative support. The first necessity is to secure water resources as public property in the new Water Code. People having the right to water establish a basis for creating economic tools for their participation in water resource management.

The head of state has repeatedly set the task of rational consumption and conservation of water resources, calling to employ scientific developments, innovations, and advanced international experience.

The digitalization of water supply facilities and the entire water industry is of utmost importance. What lies ahead is a large-scale reconstruction of irrigation canals, a transition to autonomous control of hydraulic structures, automation of water accounting, and introduction of quotas for using water resources.’

- What projects are you already practicing?

‘We are planning to digitize 212 canals, 3.3 thousand km in total, over the next five years, which will save up to 2.2 cubic kilometres of water. The canals are constantly reconstructed. We repaired 1,734 km of canals in 2019 and 2020, augmenting additional 111.5 thousand hectares of irrigated land into circulation. We have scheduled the repairs of another 1,050 km of canals, which will allow adding 78 thousand hectares more.

We will reconstruct at least 120 canals, 2.3 thousand km in total, over the next five years. We are also building 9 new reservoirs with a capacity of 1.7 billion cubic metres in total in Akmola, Almaty, Jambyl, West Kazakhstan, Kyzylorda, and Turkestan regions by 2025. We are going to increase the plots employing water-saving technologies to 750 thousand hectares by 2025.

We are planning to build up to 1.2 thousand kilometres of group pipelines by 2025, which will provide drinking water to over 40 villages with a total population of up to 22.3 thousand.’

 

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