The rating is supported by a very strong external balance sheet, the lowest government debt among peers, and financing flexibility from large sovereign wealth fund assets.
The positive outlook reflects the continued strengthening of external and fiscal buffers due to higher-than-budgeted energy prices, as well as the prospect of tighter spending restraint in the energy sector.
The current account surplus has halved to 14.8% of GDP in 2023, but remains the highest in the 'BB' category.
"We expect the surplus to remain robust in 2024-25 despite lower oil prices (oil and gas revenues account for 90% of total exports). Sovereign foreign currency assets rose to US$69.8 billion in 2023, 80% of which are held by SOFAZ. This reflects still strong energy returns and record high returns from the Fund's investment portfolio," the agency says.
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