The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even skeptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus.

The historical context, including the transfer of Armenians to the Karabakh region in the 19th century by Tsarist Russia and the subsequent gerrymandering of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast under the Soviet Union, underscores Karabakh's significance as a Russian stronghold. Given Russia's consistent geopolitical objectives, observers expected Moscow to insist on maintaining its military presence in Karabakh, potentially at the cost of tensions and confrontation with Baku. However, to the surprise of many, the total opposite happened. Baku managed to secure the withdrawal of the peacekeeping contingent without confrontation or military standoff with Moscow. This historic development carries significant implications for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, for the first time since the early 19th century, Baku now enjoys complete sovereignty over all its territories without any foreign troops present. This marks a historic achievement for the Azerbaijani government, with President Ilham Aliyev being recognized as the architect of this accomplishment. He succeeded to restore Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity amidst the intense geopolitical confrontations and uncertainty in the wider region which has so far brought nothing positive to any other regional country. The removal of foreign forces from its soil has significantly strengthened Azerbaijan’s geopolitical standing and allows Baku to pursue it foreign policy objectives more confidently and assertively.

The withdrawal of the peacekeepers underscored also the complete resolution of the Karabakh conflict. It is important that all members of the international community including Armenia have acknowledged this reality. On 23 April, President Aliyev stated the peace treaty draft that is being negotiated with Armenia does not include any provisions about Karabakh. He added that Armenia has renounced territorial claims against Azerbaijan and as such Baku does not have any such claims against Armenia either. “I think, it is absolutely realistic to reach a [peace] agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia before COP29 [which will be held in November in Baku], at least an agreement on our basic principles”, President Aliyev said in his address at the forum “COP29 and Green Vision for Azerbaijan” on April 23.

Another noteworthy implication of the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh will be in the sphere of Azerbaijan-Russia relations. This development is indeed unexpected and unprecedented as it was the first time that Russian armed units left the territory of a post-Soviet state voluntarily and prematurely. Many analysts in the region contemplate the reasons behind this move and raise questions about how the two countries (Russia and Azerbaijan) agreed on this. For some observers, Moscow would not have withdrawn from the region in such a peaceful manner, if there was not a win-win deal for the Kremlin. Therefore, many analysts pointed to the possibility of Azerbaijan’s membership to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) which is critically important for Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions. However, President Aliyev, on 23 April, made it clear that Baku has no such plans at the moment, though did not rule out this possibility in the future, if the membership promises any economic benefits to Azerbaijan. However, this and other comments about the European Union were probably the polite rejection of any alignment with global geopolitical powers, whether it is West or East.

This makes it clear that Azerbaijan is not planning to make a radical geostrategic shift in foreign policy in return for the withdrawal of the peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region. The priority will remain to keep non-aligned status and develop ties within other regional organizations. President Aliyev has outlined Baku’s choice in regional integration during his inauguration speech in February this year. “The Organization of Turkic States… is a priority for us. This is the main international organization for us, because it is our family. We have no other family. Our family is the Turkic world”, he said on 14 February at the Azerbaijani Parliament

That said, in the wake of Russia’s unexpected withdrawal of its peacekeeping mission from the Karabakh region, the South Caucasus enters a new geopolitical dynamic. This historic development not only signifies Azerbaijan's attainment of complete sovereignty over its territories but also heralds the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict. President Ilham Aliyev's adept diplomatic maneuvers have secured Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and positioned Baku as a confident actor on the regional stage. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers marks a pivotal moment, shaping the future landscape of Azerbaijan-Russia relations and regional geopolitics. As Azerbaijan charts its course forward, its commitment to regional integration remains, however, steadfast, with a focus on strengthening ties within the Turkic world.

AzVision.az

More about: