Unemployment is thought to cause political fallout in Europe that in turn may trigger the processes leading to dire consequences.

Dangerous tends

Future of Europe is a growing concern for political circles of the West. European Union was deemed an institution with greatest prospects, prior to the financial crisis of 2008, with sufficient confidence of it becoming one of the key power hubs of the global geopolitics. By and large, the majority of the forecasts regarding the EU`s future promised bright prospects.

The situation is completely different now. Not only that the economic crisis was not prevented, but the world distressingly observes it to engulf the rest of the globe. As far the EU is concerned, some savvy experts are already discussing impact of the crisis upon previously immune areas. In his recent article the "Stratfor” founder George Friedman touched upon aspects that bear significance for the future of Europe (see: George Friedman. Europe, Unemployment and Instability // "Stratfor", 5 March, 2013).

According to the author, European economic crisis has entered a new phase with trends inclining towards cardinal changes in the political structure of the society. This is the key point because the analyst believes the process is accompanied by serious contradictions. In this context, transformation of the economic crisis into the crisis of unemployment is thought provoking, as the former is claimed to be a global one. That said, G.Friedman is not the only one defending this thesis. His views are shared by Zeenat Rahman, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry`s Special Adviser on Global Youth Issues (see: Zeenat Rahman. The Real Crisis: Global Youth Unemployment // "The Diplomat”, 1 March, 2013).

And that`s not it. Unemployment crisis is claimed to have started causing political problems. G.Friedman and Z.Rahman are writing of the process based on concrete facts. Political crisis questions the very fate of the European Union as an institution, as it paves the way for significant changes in the political activity and the contents of the ideological concepts. Analysts are particularly worried about new manifestations of the rising fascism in Europe. Any form or content of political radicalism is inconsistent with the spirit of the present historical phase. In the times of globalization, the policy of isolation and aggressive behavior against others cannot be an acceptable political model. This is the issue that troubles the experts. How can such a situation emerge in advanced Europe? Can it be thwarted? In order to respond to those questions we must first address the mechanisms that lead to unemployment becoming a political crisis.

From unemployment towards political radicalism

According to International Labour Organization there are currently 75 million young people out of job in the world. Compared to adults, those aged between 15 and 24 have three times less chances of finding a job. European Unemployment figures are: Greece – 27%, Spain – 26.2%, Portugal – 17.6%, Ireland – 14.7%, Lithuania – 13.3%, Italy – 11.7% (see: G. Friedman`s article). France and Poland both registered 10.6% unemployment and the UK unemployment is at 7.7%. Germany, Austria, Netherlands and Luxemburg are the only countries with unemployment below 6%.

What threats do these figures define? The problem is that every unemployed person affects the life of three other persons. Given the psychological factors, a person without a job usually confronts the society, feels alienated and considers the social environment merciless. On the other hand, 11% unemployment in any country means that 44% of the population is experiencing social-economic hardships. Thus, Greece with its 27% unemployment has 81% of its people suffering from crisis. Usually, such dire situation within the society leads to dramatic changes in the political system of a country. Political developments in Italy and Greece only attest to assertion.

"Five star movement” has claimed 25 seats in the parliamentary elections in Italy this February. Given the establishment of this party in 2009 by people dissimilar with politics, their success is thought provoking. Party was founded by a comedian Beppe Grillo and editor Gianroberto Casaleggio. It is a populist party with pessimistic ideology towards European integration. Party`s main theme is combating corruption domestically and upholding Italy`s interests with regards to the European Union. However this party lacks efficient economic development model. The situation resembles the one of the 1920s where environment was conducive to the rise of fascism in Europe. Indeed, nowadays, fascism may differ from that of the XX century, but the essence remains.

Populist promises, policy of isolation and efforts to introduce an idea that threats are originating outside of the country may contribute to utterly irreconcilable social posture within the society. Enmity against Germany is currently evoked in Italy and Greece, claiming that Europe`s strongest economy is reluctant to alleviate the crisis. Some insist that Berlin`s position towards Paris is also obstructive. Germany wants inflation kept in control while France would want to see more stimulation of the economies. This contradiction is regarded as a threat by local politicians in countries that suffer. It exacerbates the situation and only increases the number of politically radical-minded people.

Greece has similar situation. "Golden Dawn” political party has boosted its clout in the country. They are explicitly hostile towards Greek citizens of Turkish origin. Considering the unemployment rate in the country, strengthening of political radicalism is not hard to predict. Such processes are also developing in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and elsewhere.

Who is to safe the middle-class?

The crisis emanates from the failure of incumbent European governments to act consistent with the interests of the middle class. Populists capitalize on this aspect and allure more people. This process jeopardizes democracy because proponents of radical political course are attempting to cardinally change the system of administration. Programs to confront them are not in place.

Ekkehard Ernst, the economist with the International Labour Organization, expressed disbelief that problem of unemployment among the youth can be resolved in next 5 years. He predicts 50% youth unemployment in Spain and 30% in Italy and Greece by 2017. Holger Schafer, expert with the German Institute of Economic Research, disagrees with drama described but acknowledges the deepening crisis. Interestingly, problems stemming from unemployment are more frequently mentioned by the European politicians lately. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy voiced their concern.

Above stated demonstrates lack of mechanisms to prevent political radicalism in European countries. Analysts, experts and politicians alike are describing the situation as dire but no solutions are proposed. Thus, ultra-radical, chauvinist and fascist-minded groups are likely to solidify their positions on the backdrop of aggravation of the social-economic situation for the middle class in Europe. It is too premature to predict the endurance of this trend. However, given the high alertness of the situation and the fact that crisis is not subsiding in the EU, it is high time for serious contemplation.

As the deepening of political crisis is becoming apparent on the global scale, any country may become exposed to its impact. Thus, tackling this problem requires concerted effort. Let there be no doubt of disastrous prospects for the mankind stemming from fascism in the XXI century. Apparently, the world would only gain if the countries guided by the principle of double standards revisit their policies. Failure to prevent the crisis today will put the young generation against the tide of dire problems of tomorrow. In the times of rising unemployment this path will hardly lead salvation of mankind.

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