While some progress has been made in limiting greenhouse gas emissions, we are still on the path for high levels of global warming, according to NewScientist.
Current policies of governments around the world are likely to result in Earth warming by anywhere between 1.9 and 3.7°C by 2100, with potentially more to come in the 22nd century.
“Every year we keep emitting CO2 after 2100 results in higher and higher global temperatures,” says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Stripe, a California-based software company that invests in carbon-removal technology.
His conclusions are based on a review of more than a dozen studies published in the past five years looking at the implications of current policies. According to these studies, the world is most likely to warm by between 2.3 and 3°C by 2100.
However, these numbers don’t fully take account of the uncertainties about future emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of human actions, and also in how the climate system will respond to those emissions. Including those uncertainties gives a broader range, of 1.9 to 3.7°C.
These numbers reflect the most likely range of scenarios – the 5th to 95th percentiles – meaning there is a small chance of warming of as much as 4.4°C this century with current policies.
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