South Caucasus happens to be in the realm of their interests. Analysis reveals a number of sensitive aspects with regards to the future of this region.

Key themes of the strategy

South Caucasus is gradually becoming a ground for large scale struggle between the global geopolitical powers. Russia has substantially stepped up its activity in the region. It is with consecutive messages and adopted decisions that Russia declares its determination to secure its interests in the South Caucasus at any cost. This process is apparent in two directions. Steps to ensure engagement of regional countries with the Eurasian integration process and the Customs Union are the first one. The second one is the proposal of various initiatives aimed at safeguarding security in the South Caucasus. Moscow`s definition of security is suggested in the context of "curbing the Western threat”.

Therefore, regional activity of the West draws serious attention. Plans envisaged by the U.S. bear utmost importance here. Report prepared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. with regards to the U.S. strategy on the South Caucasus caused interest with the expert community (see: U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Turkey and the South Caucasus. www.csis.org, 6 February, 2013). Authors of the report were Anthony Cordesman, Michael Gibbs and Bryan Gold.

Report scrutinized envisaged actions by the official Washington, given the established geopolitical picture of the region. Naturally, ideas expressed were the products of individual analysis of the situation by the authors of the report. Nevertheless, it contains significant theses concerning the interests pursued by the U.S. in the South Caucasus. Firstly, objectives of the U.S. in this region are evaluated in the context of Russia. For some reason, remarkably little attention is given to co-activity of both powers. Problem is viewed based on formal logic of Aristotle – "either-or”. It is either the U.S. or Russia that must rule the South Caucasus! It is worthy to mention that Iran factor is not neglected here , and its cooperation with Moscow is thoroughly considered. The analysis is conducted in the context of ensuing security of regional states. Democratization, access to natural resources and their subsequent transportation bypassing Russia and Iran were defined as key conditions. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, are also viewed in this particular context.

Special emphasis on Iran was made in the report. Strategy of the U.S. on the South Caucasus is largely built on neutralizing Tehran. Primary objective is to limit Iran`s capability to utilize this region for avoiding sanctions. Therefore, the U.S. must prevent Armenia`s cooperation with Iran, deter Tehran`s pressure against Azerbaijan and further broaden ties with Georgia. It must be stressed that Turkey is presented as the U.S. ally under any scenario. Invariable condition is for Ankara to ensure the U.S. interests. Other than that, Turkey`s geopolitical position in the South Caucasus is not addressed in the report.

From contradictions to conflict

There are certain controversial aspects to the U.S. approach towards the South Caucasus. Such a posture is conducive to confrontation between the large powers. Secondly, it puts such large regional powers as Turkey and Iran head to head. One Muslim country is deemed a partner and the next one an enemy. Ultimately, this position leads to rift in the Muslim world. Thirdly, the U.S. treats the South Caucasus states the same, whereas these countries differ by geopolitical status, traditions of statehood and content of foreign policy course. Armenia, in particular, wages policy of aggression in the region, having occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani lands owing to support from abroad.

If the U.S. is to be just, then condition of ensuring territorial integrity of the regional states must prevail. Cooperation must be established only upon Armenia`s total compliance with this condition. However, we see cardinally opposite situation – State Department annually allocates millions of dollars of assistance to Armenia. Moreover, separatist regime in the Nagorno Karabakh receives financial aid. Major pretext for it – strong Armenian diaspora in the U.S.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan faces biased position. Report described Armenia as a country with "more democratic and open political system” while Azerbaijan was a state "with less democracy”. Obviously, U.S. policy on the South Caucasus is not based on the real situation but rather on subjective interests. Such position is detrimental to regional cooperation and leads to exacerbation of conflicts. Can Washington`s position be conducive to the resolution of conflicts in the South Caucasus in the strategic perspective? This question is difficult to answer unequivocally. Geopolitics that are not based on objective criteria is likely to fail in producing tangible results, possibly followed by more complex and fierce clash between the large powers.

This conclusion is reinforced whilst comparing key foreign policy priorities of Russia and the U.S. Each country considers cementing its position in the South Caucasus paramount importance. Special emphasis on the subject was made in the recently released new foreign policy concept of Russia. Integration on the CIS and the Eurasian space was a topic there. In the meantime, Russia`s head of state entrusted the Federal Security Bureau with neutralizing opponents of the integration process.

Apparently, large powers are set for the bitter rivalry over the region. They are attempting to substantiate their actions theoretically, politically and methodologically. This problem is thought provoking in two aspects. Firstly, large powers prefer securing their interests rather than having a dialogue which only attests to the ongoing confrontation. Secondly, global geopolitical contradictions are likely to prevent just settlement of the conflicts in the South Caucasus. Likewise, contradictions in the criteria that lay in the foundation of U.S. geopolitical strategy may cause deepening of conflicts in the region.

Are there any prospects for regional stability and integration?

The South Caucasus will likely to remain a battleground for global geopolitical powers for years to come. U.S., Russia and Iran have been extremely active in securing their interests in this part of the world. If the first two countries are overtly and comprehensively engaging the matters, Tehran is being more clandestine about it. Key tactics used by Iran constitute projecting radical religious views upon the politics. Therefore, it exploits the issue of Shia Islam. This method, tried and tested by Iran in the Near and the Middle East, is endeavored to be applied in the South Caucasus.

Capitalizing on the precarious feature of Iran`s regional policy, the U.S. has started to shape a broad front against the Muslim countries. It means that false political courses of certain Muslim countries play into the hands of large powers aiming to implement their interests. Evaluation of real geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus may reveal that America`s chances are quite high. Regional situation is favorable for Moscow too. For centuries, Russia has been hegemony in the Caucasus and is well aware of methods to exert pressure upon the region. Undoubtedly, Kremlin will not stop short of employing all the means to achieve its objectives. Unlike the U.S., Russia does not deny Iran but rather uses it to boost its clout in the region. Moscow and Tehran are allies on the number of geopolitical issues, although successful outcome of this tactic is difficult to predict.

So far, Iran has supported Kremlin on concrete issues. Military analyst Sergey Siganok predicts that Russia will use the Iranian territory to deploy troops to Armenia (see: В странах ОДКБ десантные войска укрепят позиции Москвы на Кавказе. 1in.am, 6 March, 2013). Thus, Tehran demonstrates its determination to curb the geopolitical influence of the U.S. in the region by joining efforts with Russia.

Turkey factor is impossible to ignore when speaking of the South Caucasus. Ankara has vast interests in the region. Therefore, it pursues its individual interests along with being the U.S. ally. Turkey is a country with genuine interests in the establishment of stability in the South Caucasus because it develops in parallel with its key ally in the region – Azerbaijan. Two fraternal states have no territorial claims against others. Being strong and enjoying extensive growth potential, performance of both countries is aimed at the establishment of democracy, free economy and dialogue. Therefore, they are interested in the expansion of the process of regional integration.

That said, the aforementioned only underscores the volatility of the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus. Confrontation prone global powers significantly increase the risk factor. Armenia can be employed for that purpose, and this idea has been extensively elaborated upon. Do the aforementioned suggest the need of establishment of an alternative power center capable of balancing the risks? We believe this question is immediate. Nevertheless, it is yet unclear who would serve as an alternative. It is even tough to predict the emergence of such a power. However, we believe it would be useful for everyone to acknowledge the graveness of the situation. (Newtimes.az)

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