Tension: No Resolution is Found
Political situation in Armenia has significantly aggravated. Different reasons are being cited but all the forecasts are centered on pessimistic scenarios. Negative atmosphere in the political circles and the society is not accidental. Arguments of the experts attest to the gravity of the situation.
One of the interesting points here is the coincidence of the political crisis in Armenia with the one developing in Georgia. In the time when ministers were resigning in Tbilisi political crisis in Armenia started to unfold and the issue of reshuffle in the ruling team in Yerevan emerged. Analysts describe it as "Serzh Sargsyan is making changes to his team`` (see: Айказн Гагриян. Серж Саркисян меняет "команду" / Lragir.am, 6 November 2014).
Some experts contend that Sargsyan is making a "knight’s move`` in order to consolidate his power (see: Айказн Гагриян. "Ход конем" Сержа Саркисяна / Lragir.am, 7 November 2014). The point is that on one hand, the local media is reporting about Sargsyan’s meeting with the opposition "Prosperous Armenia`` party leader Gagik Tsarukyan and on the other hand, it is being alleged that some new ministries are being established, one being responsible for regional administration and the other to deal with economic integration and reforms.
Connection between the meeting of the head of state with the opposition leader and changes in the administrative structure are seen as signs of political crisis. This issue can impel more complex processes in Armenia. And this is why experts’ predictions are pessimistic because according to them, both domestic and international factors make an impact here.
Armenia has been suffocating in domestic social-political and economic hardships. Standards of living are deteriorating and thousands of its citizens are seeking better life abroad. Society lacks confidence as the bogus political struggle reduced it to minimum. Pessimism in Armenia has only deepened in the wake of the decision regarding the Customs Union. People don’t even receive their salaries on time.
Such economic and social constraints helped boost opposition’s image in the provinces. G. Tsarukyan is the most prominent persona. He is recognized as a leader of the opposition group known as "trio`` ("Armenian National Congress``, "Prosperous Armenia`` and "Legacy``). In recent years the government was compelled to take trio’s position seriously and the main reason for this is the latter’s affiliation with Moscow. Sargsyan’s hasty structural reforms and early elections plans are associated with the very factor (see: Акоп Бадалян. Чрезвычайная ситуация в России и Армении / Lragir.am, 8 November 2014).
Rumors are that Russia is gearing up for some actions. Moscow may seize the opportunity of the political crisis in Georgia and secure ground communication through Javakhetiya. In that event, Kremlin would be in a position to easily choose the person at the helm of the country in Armenia (see: "Цель России – сухопутная дорога через Грузию к базе в Гюмри" – Шашкин / Грузия Online, 8 November 2014).
Reforms and Forecasts: Contradictions Persist
So what do Sarsgyan’s maneuvers regarding elections and structural changes embody? According to experts, uncertain situation that Armenia finds itself it, in terms of geopolitics, plays a crucial role here. Deepening crisis in Russia and its aggravating relations with the West put Armenia against a dilemma. Recent decision of the European Union to provide financial assistance to Armenia was seen as a remaining opportunity to foster cooperation and that is why official Yerevan suddenly decided to introduce a ministry responsible for international economic cooperation and reforms.
From a different perspective, this can be regarded as lack of trust towards Moscow. Yerevan is unconvinced of the prospects of strategic cooperation with Russia. That being said, how exactly Armenia intends to independently integrate with the West when it is a member to Eurasian Economic Union? This attests to certain obscurity. Apparently, S. Sargsyan is making cosmetic changes to mislead the public opinion. He is aware that he will never be able to cast off dependence on Russia.
Still, there is more to this issue and it has to do with Tsarukyan’s persona. This person is an Armenian oligarch with business dealings in Russia. He is said to be following Kremlin’s instruction for quite some time. Rumors are that Sarqsyan is seeking a contact with high-ranking Russian interlocutor to shield himself from Kremlin’s wrath. Indeed, the country is an uncertain situation.
Speaker of the Parliament Galust Saakyan only confirmed the suspicions by telling the journalists that, "Nobody knows what blocks would emerge, how situation in Armenia would change or what changes in the world in general would occur`` (see: Айказн Гагриян. Неожиданное решение / Lragir.am, 8 November 2014). It seems that Armenian authorities can project their future actions neither at home nor abroad. They are unable to foresee potential hurdles. All-in-all official Yerevan is completely submerged into volatility and fails to find the remedy. This only questions Sargsyan’s motives of conducting structural reforms.
The only thing that is certain is that president had struck an agreement with Tsarukyan. According to recent reports, the latter had given up his presidency aspirations. The delicate aspect here is Sargsyan’s intention to push for constitutional reforms. Parliamentary form of governance is to be the document’s cornerstone. New article to be added to the document will make it difficult to impeach the president. The "trio`` has propositions of its own. Experts believe that Sargsyan has already accepted their offer in exchange for approval of constitutional reforms (see: Наира Айрумян. Гагик Царукян отказался от президентских амбиций? / Lragir.am, 11 November 2014).
It is yet unclear where these games within the political elite are taking the country? But it is already certain that the government is in the process of securing mutual agreement with the pro-Russian segment of the opposition. Evidently, the Kremlin is learning its lesson from the events in Ukraine. However, the other side of the issue is associated with the internal situation in Armenia. Moreover, it is also unknown how the West that provides substantial financial assistance to Armenia would react.
For the time being, Armenia resembles a country on the verge of a social outburst. Maneuvers by the political parties are unable to alleviate the situation. As Sargsyan aims to retain his grip on power, against the backdrop of economic and social crisis, objective of the opposition is to make the best of this situation. The country is grappling with both processes now.
Experts rightfully believe that the system of governance is experiencing an overall crisis. Indeed, in order to salvage the situation partial reforms would be inefficient without complete renewal of the governance system. Therefore, given the ongoing geopolitical processes the question that experts ask - "Where is Armenia going?`` appears to be as relevant as ever (see: Куда идет Армения / Lragir.am, 11 November 2014). Interestingly, Armenia itself has no answer to this question.
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