A quick recap of where we are in climate this year, so far: The first six months of 2016 made for the hottest first half of any year ever recorded. Add that to last year`s records, and the planet has been undergoing a 14-month streak of unprecedented heat.
"There`s been a pretty steady warming throughout the century," NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said in a teleconference on July 19. "2016 has really blown that out of the water."
Schmidt, who is director of NASA`s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said that his statistical model for the rest of the year "indicates that we have roughly a 99% chance of a new record in 2016."
At least of some of these high temperatures, he noted, are tied to 2016`s strong el Nino, a recurring weather pattern tied to warm waters in the Pacific Ocean. "If a year starts with an el Nino event in December, January, that year starts very warm," he said. Current predictions have 2017 kicking off in either neutral weather patterns or in a la Nina season, meaning the globe should see some respite from 2016`s extraordinary heat.
But that`s small comfort in the face of the fact that this year`s average temperature is about 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit higher than it was in the late 1800s. According to Schmidt, we`re "dancing" with the 2.7 degrees of warming world leaders hope to avoid.
Of course, this doesn`t mean we`ve already hit that target. Climate scientists like Schmidt are primarily interested in trends. A cool 2017 won`t negate a sweltering 2016, and this year`s temperatures aren`t yet the new norm.
"One year being warmer or one year being colder are not really relevant," Schmidt said. "We will cool in years to come, but the trends are going to continue."
NASA says there is `99% chance` that 2016 will be warmest year on record
26 July 2016
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The first half of 2016 has already racked up an alarming array of new records — and, according to NASA, August through December are likely to be no different.
