Trump attacks Lockheed’s F-35 fighter in blow to defense stocks

  13 December 2016    Read: 1622
Trump attacks Lockheed’s F-35 fighter in blow to defense stocks
Defense stocks plunged as President-elect Donald Trump took aim at another high-profile military program: Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 fighter jet, the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons system.
“The F-35 program and cost is out of control,” Trump posted Monday on Twitter. “Billions of dollars can and will be saved on military (and other) purchases after January 20th,” referring to inauguration day.

Trump’s criticism of defense program costs has tempered a post-election rally driven by his call on the stump for a larger armed force and greater fleets of combat ships and fighter jets. The tweet echoed similar comments the president-elect made on “Fox News Sunday.” On Saturday he posted a link to a Washington Post article about $125 billion in administrative waste that was hidden by the Pentagon.

The broadside reinforced Trump’s willingness to attack big U.S. companies. He assailed Boeing Co. last week over the development budget for the new Air Force One and earlier badgered United Technologies over a plan to move some U.S. jobs to Mexico in its Carrier air-conditioning unit. Carrier later pared its workforce shift after getting state aid from Indiana. He also recently vowed to drive down drug prices.

Lockheed fell 3.9 percent to $249.33 at 11:15 a.m. in New York, the largest intraday drop since August. Northrop Grumman Corp., which is a major supplier to the F-35, and Raytheon Co. at their worst tumbled the most since August 2015. United Technologies Corp., whose Pratt & Whitney unit makes engines for the plane, was little changed. The Standard & Poor’s Aerospace and Defense Index declined 1.6 percent.

Delay Plagued

By targeting Lockheed, Trump took aim at the world’s biggest defense contractor, whose $379 billion F-35 is meant to be flown by the Air Force, Navy and Marines. Like many complicated military programs, the jet had been plagued by delays. However, costs have fallen by 60 percent as the fighter approaches full production.

“Stating that costs are ‘out of control’ is wrong,” Byron Callan, a defense analyst at Capital Alpha, said in a note to clients. “Yes, there are affordability issues on the F-35 and there may be alternative ways to deliver capabilities offered by the F-35 through other platforms or weapons. However, unit prices have been declining, and the program has stabilized in recent years.”

“We don’t believe investors should panic over the program’s prospects based on a single Trump tweet,” Callan said.

Bill Phelps, a spokesman for Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed, declined to comment on Trump’s remarks. Representatives for suppliers Northrop and Pratt couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

No Guarantees

Trump’s remarks on television and Twitter signal that the Pentagon’s planned ramp-up of F-35 production isn’t guaranteed. There’s also a pending “block buy” of 450 aircraft in the coming years as the Pentagon seeks a total fleet of 2,443, including 1,763 for the Air Force.

Still, the perception of out-of-control costs isn’t accurate, at least as of today, defense officials have said. Lockheed and its suppliers have invested billions of dollars into an effort to bring per-plane production costs in line with current generation fighters, such as the F-16. The F-35 program’s total bill has declined steadily. The total estimated acquisition cost last year was lowered by $12.1 billion to $379 billion. That’s after a $7.5 billion reduction the year before to $391.1 billion from $398.6 billion.

“My memory goes back seven years ago to a development program way over cost and way behind,” Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, who was the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer at the time, said in a February interview. After much effort, the fighter jet is on track to become “what it’s supposed to be: not only the best tactical aircraft in the world, but the most affordable.”

Costs Fall

Overall development and procurement costs have declined since 2014 even though the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in April that “the program continues to face significant affordability challenges. DOD plans to begin increasing production and expects to spend more than $14 billion annually for nearly a decade on procurement.“

The Pentagon’s F-35 program office this month said it would need to shift as much as $530 million from other priorities within the program to finish the fighter’s development phase next year. Approving the shifted funds probably would be the first F-35 decision to reach the desk of the next defense secretary.

The F-35 is Lockheed’s largest source of revenue, accounting for 20 percent of sales. The company also is counting on the stealthy fighter to propel its international growth. Beyond the Pentagon, more than 600 additional aircraft are to be sold to partners such as the U.K., Australia, Japan and Italy.

Lockheed and defense officials have been locked in negotiations over terms for the 10th and largest yet order for the jets. The Pentagon provided the company with a $1.28 billion down payment in November to continue production while the two sides hammer out a contract valued as much as $7.19 billion for 90 aircraft, the biggest order yet.

/Bloomberg/

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