THE brutal murder of Andrei Karlov, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, bears a striking resemblance to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War One.
The deadliest conflict in human history was sparked when Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914.
The murder of the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary rapidly sparked a diplomatic crisis which ultimately led to the deaths of 16 million people, including seven million civilians.
Within one months of the shooting, major powers were at war as nations felt compelled to honour complex treaties and pacts - and the conflict soon spread around the world.
Chillingly, the murder of a very senior Russian diplomat on Turkish soil, just yards from the main parliament building, has many parallels to the Ferdinand killing.
Turkey is a key member of NATO and tensions with Russia, which is already furious about the eastern expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, are at an all-time high.
Only last month Russian President Vladimir Putin moved nuclear-capable missiles closer to Europe in response to Nato`s expansion in the Baltic states.
Moscow’s S-400 surface-to-air missiles and a ballistic Iskander system were deployed in Kaliningrad, situated between Lithuania and Poland. The weapons have a range of 450 miles, which means they could hit Berlin.
Article Five of the NATO treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.
With relations between Turkey and Russia already in dire straits after the shooting down of a Russian yet along the Turkish-Syrian border last November, President Putin may see this as a very real opportunity to test NATO’s resolve.
There are many other eery parallels between the two assasinations.
The 1914 shooting was not perceived as a major international incident at the time and world stock markets barely reacted - today the Dow Jones is up more than 40 points, much as it was before the killing of Andrei Karlov. US TV networks are barely covering the incident.
Princip, who murdered Archduke Ferdinand, was also a very young political activist at the time of the assasination, aged just 19 at the time. Mevlüt Mert Altintaş, the fresh-faced killer of Andrey Karlov, is just 22 and bears a striking resemblance to Princip. He was motivated by Russia’s actions in neighbouring Syria.
In 1914, Princip acted as a professional assassin, killing Ferdinand opportunistically when his driver took a wrong turn after an earlier bomb plot - carried out by Principe’s co-conspirators - had failed.
A witness talking to Turkey`s CNNTurk television said today that Karlov’s killer, a police officer, was cold-blooded and calm as he assassinated Karlov. "He (the attacker) said that I will not leave this place alive," according to the witness.
In 1914, Principe was one of seven Serbian military conspirators led by the Chief of Serbian Military Intelligence Dragutin Dimitrijević, his right-hand man Major Vojislav Tankosić. Tankosić armed the assassins with bombs and pistols and trained them.
Reports from Turkey this evening suggest that the 22-year-old killer may have been backed by a well organised and armed pro-Syrian rebel movement.
Like Karlov, Franz Ferdinand was visiting a seemingly innocuous art event when he was murdered.
The archduke’s Sarajevo visit included opening the State Museum with his wife Sophie and they were riding in an open-top car on their way from the Sarajevo Town Hall when Princip struck.
Andrei Karlov was also attending an opening, of an exhibit at a contemporary arts centre when he was attacked. He was several minutes into a speech at the photography exhibition when his killer shouted “Allahu Akbar” and fired at least eight shots into his back.
Perhaps most chilling is the reaction in Russia. One analyst with links to the Kremlin told a Russian TV station immediately after the shooting: “WW1 started with a shot. The shot of Russian ambassador is declaration of war.”
