Experts of the center remind that at the press conference on 29 January, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko did not rule out that Belarus may withdraw from the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union, unless they comply with the agreement, but also stressed that integration with Russia is deep and abiding.
As Stratfor analysts note, Armenia is facing a growing challenge in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, in which Russia plays a key role.
Center`s analysts say, Belarus and Armenia are likely to continue to maintain a strategic focus on Russia, but will continually review their position depending on what the struggle between Moscow and the West leads to.
The report separately considers each of the two countries. It is noted that Armenia has long been a strategic ally of Russia. The main factor for the orientation of Armenia to Moscow is the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Russia has become the de facto guarantor of Armenia`s security. 5000 Russian military grouping stationed in Armenia constrains the possible encroachments of Azerbaijan on return of territories, and also protects the borders of Armenia with large regional states - Turkey and Iran," the material says.
Stratfor analysts note that the Ukrainian crisis has affected the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"Tensions has increased all along the line of contact between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, violent incidents took place in August 2014, and in November Armenian Azerbaijani armed forces shot down the helicopter. Azerbaijan has more opportunities for maneuver due to the demand for energy resources in this country and the fact that Russia is now more focused on Ukraine ", the report says.
"These factors allow Armenia to wonder about the commitment of Russia as a guarantor of security, especially that Moscow weakly responded to the incident with the downed Armenian helicopter. Armenia has not taken a strong attack in response, and on 27 January, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan admitted that downed helicopter strayed, and said that dismissals took place in connection with the incident," the report says.
According to the analysts of the Research Center, this startling confession shows that Armenia may reconsider its relations with Russia than try to exploit the West and Turkey.
Nevertheless, the report`s authors believe that Armenia will "still be careful not to stray too far from Russia."
"Even despite the recent murder of an Armenian family in Gyumri by the Russian soldier and demonstrations in Armenia caused by this event, official Yerevan has supported Moscow. Ohanyan said the incident should not drive a wedge in the Armenian-Russian relations, noting that the presence of Russian military base in Armenia solves large regional problem ", experts say.
Russian military assistance for Armenia is extremely important, but the continuation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or its exacerbation may be a stumbling block in Armenia`s position in relation to Russia, analysts of Stratfor say.
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