Under Italian election rules, polls cannot be published in the final two weeks of campaigning, although they will continue to be conducted. Some 50 surveys released since December have shown no major shift in voting intentions, although more than a third of voters remain undecided.
“There are still millions of undecided voters, and there could be unexpected events, but electoral mathematics and voting trends say the most likely outcome of this election will be deadlock,” Roberto D‘Alimonte, a politics professor at Rome’s Luiss University, wrote in Il Sole 24 Ore newspaper.
Luiss commissioned a survey of 6,000 voters, six times more than in most Italian polls, which showed the center right further from an overall majority than most other surveys have suggested.
It pointed to a strong result for the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, easily the leading single party, and indicated 5-Star was ahead in many marginal seats in southern Italy that are likely to decide whether the center right can form a government.
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