To make accurate predictions about tomorrow’s conflicts, we need to look away from the preoccupations of the moment and turn our attention to the places that trouble is festering unnoticed.

Jack Mulcaire, an analyst and contributor to The National Interest, wrote this in his article titled “The Coming War between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

According to him, the obscure enclave in the Southern Caucasus is heating up, and the possibility of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is increasing.

“Nagorno-Karabakh has been de-facto independent since the end of the war between the then-newly independent nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The mostly Armenian population of the disputed region now lives under the control of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, a micronation that is supported by Armenia and is effectively part of that country. Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire, the war never officially ended, and Azerbaijan still vigorously disputes the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, to put it mildly,” Jack Mulcaire said of the conflict’s history.

The analyst counted several reasons for the war not to restart, noting that there is virtually no room for compromise between the two sides:

“Azerbaijan refuses to settle for anything less than full control of the entire area, while Armenia will not countenance anything more than a purely symbolic restoration of Azerbaijani sovereignty. It is difficult to imagine Azerbaijan surrendering its claim to almost one-fifth of Azerbaijan’s official territory for any reason”.

According to the author, the dispute is only growing more militarized and dangerous:

“Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have professionalized and rearmed their forces significantly since the first war. The Azerbaijani Army and the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army face each other along over a hundred kilometers of a fortified, land-mined and impassable border. Elaborate trenches, bunkers, revetments and artillery positions abound on both sides of the disputed line of demarcation and the forward positions of the two sides are often less than one hundred meters apart. Since the ceasefire, hundreds have died in frequent raids and exchanges of fire across the lines that always contain the possibility for escalation. Raids and skirmishes are increasing in frequency and intensity. Since the summer of 2014, these limited but dangerous clashes have taken place almost daily, although they only attract international attention when someone is killed”.


The author said both countries have strong incentives for taking military action in the next few years.

“Azerbaijan’s leaders know the military power balance is shifting in their favor. Since the mid-2000s, Azerbaijan’s military has spent tens of billions of dollars on a large arms buildup. Israel has been one of Azerbaijan’s strongest defense partners for several years now, and as a result of this quiet relationship, the Azerbaijani Air Force now fields an impressive array of Israeli drones. Azerbaijan’s Israeli drone fleet is invaluable for hunting Armenian artillery. With no hydrocarbon resources, Armenia cannot afford to match this level of military spending, so the leaders of Armenia and the Karabakh pseudo-state may foresee a grim military balance in the future and choose to face a conflict on more favorable terms sooner rather than later.

The analyst stressed that the military balance and geographic factors thus dictate that Baku is in the driver’s seat with regard to changes in the status quo.

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