Thomas de Waal said he doesn’t expect many changes by the new Armenian government, at least not soon.
“Pashinyan is going to just try to hold on to the status quo and this is probably not to the liking of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan does not want to see a quiet status quo, but a quiet status quo is unfortunately what I think the new Armenian leadership wants,” the expert told the Caucasus Watch.
Further, taking about the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, he noted that this conflict is deeply intractable and it cannot be solved quickly.
Thomas de Waal noted that there is a very weak international mechanism in place for the conflict’s settlement.
“There is a small monitoring mission with six OSCE observers, as well as the very modest Minsk Group under the co-chairmanship format that is trying to mediate the conflict. So basically everything comes down to the will and decision-making of the leaders on both sides,” said the political analyst.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations. Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.