"Although the balance of inflationary factors has not undergone significant changes since the previous meeting, there have been shifts in its structure. High volatility of the external environment of inflation, excessive expansion of aggregate demand can be considered as the main sources of risk," the CBA said.
Nominal incomes of the population increased by 14.7 percent for 5 months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. The destabilization of the global financial system, the presence of a recessionary threat in a number of developed countries and geopolitical tensions retain the potential to influence inflationary processes through various channels.
The growth rates of import price indices remain at a double-digit level.
The CBA notes that despite this, the weakening of external inflationary pressure in recent months, as well as the impact of monetary policy and macro prudential policy decisions adopted since last year, create conditions for lowering the inflation forecast for the rest of the year.
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