“The global oil market continues to exhibit significant volatility as OPEC and non-OPEC producers compete for market shares,” said the report. “Because current oil-price forecasts are subject to both upside and downside risks, the projections presented here include both a lower-bound and an upper-bound scenario. The lower-bound scenario assumes that oil prices will average $50 per barrel in 2015 and $40 per barrel in 2016 and 2017. The upper-bound scenario assumes that oil prices will average $53 per barrel in 2015, $58 in 2016 and $67 in 2017.”
This projection assumes that OPEC will continue to refrain from any form of supply management (the next OPEC meeting will take place on December 4, 2015) and that there will be no further deterioration in the global economic environment, said the WB.
“This forecast assumes the maintenance of OPEC’s current policy, the easing of geopolitical tensions, further supply increases (including rising oil exports from Iran), and moderate growth in global demand,” said the report. “These factors, combined with the extent of existing production capacity—especially shale-oil output in the United States—suggests that oil prices will remain low at an average of $53 per barrel in 2016. Low oil prices have also impacted other energy markets, especially European and Asian markets for natural gas.”
More about:
