The French Socialists already had a difficult choice ahead of them with lawmakers preparing to hash out a long-awaited budget deal on Thursday.

With one metaphor, Prime Minister François Bayrou made that big decision even harder.

The Socialists are up in arms after Bayrou said in an interview that it felt like France was suffering from a “flooding” of immigrants. Parties across the French left have accused Bayrou of echoing far-right tropes about immigration, but the Socialists are in a uniquely sticky spot.

Thursday's parliamentary meeting is the culmination of weeks of discussions between the Socialists and Bayrou's minority government, who has been trying to get them to back his prescription of €53 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts to rein in France's skyrocketing deficit.

"He for sure didn't help us," said a Socialist member of parliament involved in negotiations with the government who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

A formal vote is expected next week and it's unclear where the Socialists stand. For the party, the stakes have rarely been higher.

After years of playing second fiddle to the left-wing France Unbowed, the Socialists could use the budget deal as a chance to break with the radical left and its firebrand leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is increasingly perceived by moderates as toxic and an obstacle to their rise to power.

Earlier this month, Bayrou gave the Socialists a credible political scalp by promising to reopen French President Emmanuel Macron’s contentious pension reform, albeit in a carefully limited way. That was enough for the Socialists to turn their back on their left-wing partners in a highly watched no-confidence vote.

But supporting the government over the budget would be going one step further. The party is divided over whether it should seize the opportunity to cast itself as the adult in the room — one that voters can trust to rise above partisan divides and salvage the country's dire financial situation — and spurn its allies on the left in the process.

"A lot of my MP colleagues are sensitive to calls they hear on the ground to try and give France a budget," Socialist lawmaker Laurent Baumel told broadcaster BFMTV Wednesday. "But the word 'flooding' is not anecdotal."

The question for the Socialists is whether they land enough concessions on the budget to justify blowing up the New Popular Front, the pan-left coalition they formed alongside Mélenchon's France Unbowed, the Greens and the Communists during last year's snap election to keep Marine Le Pen's National Rally at bay.

"At this stage, concessions purely on the budget are not sufficient," Baumel said. "In my opinion, the discussion must continue."

Government spokeswoman Sophie Primas on Wednesday insisted the budget shouldn't be held hostage by the current controversy.

"The priority is the budget," Primas said at the government's weekly press conference.

Going all-in

Lawmaker Manuel Bompard, Mélenchon’s top lieutenant in the National Assembly, warned Sunday that supporting Bayrou’s budget would mean “a change of alliance” and that the Socialists would face consequences. That is, they would face candidates from other left-wing parties in the next legislative election.

In France’s two-round voting system, like-minded parties are encouraged to band together or risk being eliminated from the runoff.

To build a credible alternative to Mélenchon’s leadership, the Socialists need to regain enough popular support to be able to fly solo, something they can only do, presumably, by sticking their neck out.

But they also risk losing everything should they fail to meet the bar when the next election comes. And after Macron's widely unexpected move to call snap election over the summer, it's anyone's guess when that might be.

Politico

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