According to the WB, in the first quarter of 2016, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have fallen by 0.3 mb/d, the first reduction in 14 consecutive quarters.
Declines are expected to steepen during the year to more than 1 mb/d in the fourth quarter, resulting in an average annual fall of 0.7 mb/d-the bulk of which will be from onshore U.S. producers, the bank said.
The bank said that some annual increases are anticipated, with Canada and Russia raising output by more than 0.1 mb/d each.
Slowing output growth from higher-cost, short-cycle, unconventional oil in the U.S. is expected to help rebalance supply, the bank said.
According to the WB, global oil supply in 2015 increased by 2.7 mb/d, far exceeding the pace of demand. The gains were split between OPEC at 1.3 mb/d (mainly Iraq and Saudi Arabia) and non-OPEC 1.4 mb/d (of which 0.9 mb/d was in the United States).
Other increases were in Brazil, Canada, the North Sea, and Russia-mainly from earlier investments in large projects. While OPEC maintained strong production growth throughout the year, non-OPEC growth declined steadily from 2.3 mb/d in the first quarter to just 0.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in the United States.
WB predicts decline in oil supplies from non-OPEC countries
27 April 2016
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The World Bank (WB) predicts a decline in oil supplies from the non-OPEC countries by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2016 mainly due to a decrease in production at the US onshore fields, said WB latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
