This morning a cabinet minister has gone further, telling the Scots that they have no chance of using a referendum before March 2019 to keep Scotland inside the EU. David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, used Twitter to say that an independent Scotland would have to rejoin the EU.
This is in line with what the European commission is saying. Even if Scotland were to become an independent country now, while the UK was still a member of the EU, as a new state it would have to reapply to join the EU.
In her speech yesterday Sturgeon did not explicitly say that a referendum before the end of March 2019 (when Brexit is expected to take place) would mean that Scotland could bypass the process and simply remain in the EU. Even if Scotland voted to leave the rest of the UK, negotiating the separation would take well over a year and so the UK would have left by the time Scotland got its independence.
But Sturgeon did suggest that a vote for independence before the end of March 2019 would make it much easier to somehow stay in, or to rejoin quite quickly. She said:
If the UK leaves the EU without Scotland indicating beforehand - or at least within a short time after it - that we want a different relationship with Europe, we could face a lengthy period outside not just the EU but also the single market. That could make the task of negotiating a different future much more difficult.
These considerations lead me to the conclusion that if Scotland is to have a real choice - when the terms of Brexit are known, but before it is too late to choose our own course - then that choice should be offered between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019.
/The Guardian/
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