BP expects that as tight oil supply growth slows and demand strengthens, the call on OPEC crude will begin to increase, exceeding the historical high (32 million barrels per day in 2007) by 2030.
“OPEC’s market share by the end of the Outlook is around 40 percent, similar to its average of the past 20 years,” BP’s report said.
BP forecasts global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) to rise by around 19 million barrels per day (bpd) to 111 million bpd by 2035.
Annual global liquids demand growth will slow from 1.2 percent in 2013-20 to 0.7 percent in 2020-35, according to BP forecasts.
Demand growth is expected to come exclusively from rapidly growing non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) economies.
Non-OECD consumption is forecasted to reach around 70 million bpd by 2035. OECD demand is expected to fall to around 40 million bpd in 2035, which is the lowest level since 1986.
“The increased demand is met initially by supply from non-OPEC unconventional sources and, later in the Outlook, from OPEC,” the report said.
By 2035 BP expects non-OPEC supply to increase by 13 million bpd, while OPEC production will expand by 7 million bpd.
“The largest increments of non-OPEC supply come from the US (6 million bpd), Brazil (3 million bpd), and Canada (3 million bpd), which offset declines in mature provinces such as the North Sea. OPEC supply growth comes primarily from NGLs (3 million bpd) and crude oil in Iraq (2 million bpd),” the report said.
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